尿素：仍在区间震荡内，但上方压力逐步增加

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea is still within the range - bound oscillation, but the upward pressure is gradually increasing [1] - In the medium - term, before the Indian Prime Minister's visit to China, investors' risk preference in the urea market remains low, and the market is expected to move within a range. In the long - term, from the perspective of the terminal value of the 01 contract, the fundamental pressure is still high, and it may show a weakening trend as policies become clearer [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - For the urea 01 contract, the closing price was 1,764 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,773 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the trading volume was 181,545 lots, a decrease of 275,681 lots; the open interest was 205,717 lots, a decrease of 2,892 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 3,573 tons, unchanged; the trading volume was 643.871 million yuan, a decrease of 991.163 million yuan; the basis in Shandong was - 4, up 2; the basis of Fengxi - disk was - 134, up 12; the basis of Dongguang - disk was - 4, up 12; the spread of UR09 - UR01 was - 27 for Henan Xinlianxin, down 2 [1] Spot Market - The factory prices of some urea producers remained stable, such as Yankuang Xinjiang at 1,460 yuan/ton, Shandong Ruixing at 1,750 yuan/ton, and Shanxi Fengxi at 1,630 yuan/ton. The price of Jiangsu Linggu increased by 20 yuan to 1,810 yuan/ton. The prices of traders in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan to 1,760 yuan/ton, while those in Shanxi remained at 1,630 yuan/ton [1] Supply - side Indicators - The urea production start - up rate was 82.59%, down 0.65 percentage points; the daily output was 191,200 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons [1] 2. Industry News - On August 20, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0239 million tons, an increase of 66,500 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 6.95%. Due to weak domestic demand and lack of market confidence, local urea enterprises could not maintain the balance between production and sales. Although some enterprises' inventories decreased due to export orders and maintenance, the overall enterprise inventory was on the rise. Some provinces saw inventory increases while others saw decreases [2] - As export - related information has been successively confirmed, the market's export expectations for urea are gradually materializing. In the context of the futures premium over the spot, the focus is on whether the overall spot trading volume can support the futures premium. [2][3]