甲醇日评：反弹空间有限-20250822

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report believes that the fundamentals of methanol are still weak, and the rebound space is limited. The upstream coal - based profit is still high, and the domestic downstream profit is still poor, with room for repair, so the methanol valuation is relatively high. The return of domestic and imported supplies gives a downward drive to the methanol price. Currently, the raw material inventory of downstream MTO enterprises is high, and it is difficult to have further inventory - building demand. It is highly likely that the port will continue to accumulate inventory, so the upward drive of methanol is not strong [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Price and Basis - Futures Prices: MA01 closed at 2425 yuan/ton on August 21, 2025, up 1 yuan/ton (0.04%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2393 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.37%); MA09 closed at 2314 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.04%) [1]. - Spot Prices: In regions like Taicang, Shandong, and Guangdong, spot prices increased slightly on August 21, 2025, while in Shaanxi, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.47%). Spot prices in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 115 yuan/ton on August 21, 2025, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2. Cost and Profit - Coal and Gas Prices: The price of Ordos Q5500 coal decreased by 7.5 yuan/ton (-1.45%) to 510 yuan/ton on August 21, 2025, while the prices of Datong Q5500 and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged. The industrial natural gas price in Hohhot remained unchanged, and in Chongqing, it decreased by 0.05 yuan/cubic meter (-1.57%) [1]. - Methanol Production Profits: The profit of coal - based methanol remained unchanged at 373.70 yuan/ton. The profit of natural - gas - based methanol increased by 40 yuan/ton (8.66%) to - 422 yuan/ton. The profit of Northwest MTO increased by 30 yuan/ton (41.67%) to 102 yuan/ton, while the profit of East China MTO decreased by 24.50 yuan/ton (-5.20%) to - 496.07 yuan/ton. Among downstream products, the profit of acetic acid decreased by 5.50 yuan/ton (-2.32%), while the profits of MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether remained unchanged [1]. 3.3. Important Information - Domestic: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated and rose on August 21, 2025, opening at 2424 yuan/ton and closing at 2425 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 459,301 lots, and the open interest was 680,234 lots, with a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest [1]. - Foreign: Currently, only one 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is under maintenance, and the remaining plants are operating at their original loads. Attention should be paid to the operation dynamics of local methanol plants in the second half of the month [1]. 3.4. Trading Strategy - The recent rebound of methanol is mainly due to the successful trial - run of a downstream glacial acetic acid plant and the removal of naphtha production capacity in South Korea, which boosted the olefin price. However, the fundamentals of methanol are still weak, and the rebound space is expected to be limited [1].