申万期货品种策略日报：聚烯烃（LL、PP）-20250822

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures continued to rebound. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply - demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is slowly being digested, but short - term petrochemical inventory may fluctuate. The de - stocking process in summer is tortuous. Domestically, the macro - level is still driven by domestic demand, and terminal stocking demand may gradually pick up in mid - and late August. The market should focus on the autumn stocking rhythm after supply - demand digestion and possible changes in supply and cost [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - LL Futures: For the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts, the previous day's closing prices were 7386, 7383, and 7331 respectively, with increases of 39 (0.53%), 43 (0.59%), and 23 (0.31%) compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 381879, 6260, and 52643 respectively, and the open interests were 386389, 21714, and 75937 respectively, with changes of +4826, +1249, and - 14155 [2]. - PP Futures: For the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts, the previous day's closing prices were 7048, 7068, and 7016 respectively, with changes of - 8 (-0.11%), +6 (0.08%), and - 10 (-0.14%) compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 252769, 12288, and 31224 respectively, and the open interests were 453181, 32678, and 54053 respectively, with changes of +10598, +837, and - 7840 [2]. - Spreads: For LL, the 1 - month to 5 - month, 5 - month to 9 - month, and 9 - month to 1 - month spreads were 3, 52, and - 55 respectively (previous values: 7, 32, - 39). For PP, the spreads were - 20, 52, and - 32 respectively (previous values: - 6, 36, - 30) [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2428 yuan/ton, 6470 yuan/ton, 571 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, Shandong propylene increased, while others remained stable [2]. - Mid - stream Spot: In the mid - stream spot market, the price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. The price ranges of PP in these three markets were 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6850 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6850 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively, remaining stable compared to the previous values [2]. Market News - On Thursday (August 21), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.52 per barrel, up $0.81 (1.29%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.52 - $63.67. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.67 per barrel, up $0.83 (1.24%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.74 - $67.80 [2].