20250822申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250822

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range. Multiple factors are intertwined, with low concentrate processing fees testing smelting output, and domestic downstream demand generally stable and positive but with mixed sector performances. Attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance production [2]. - Zinc prices may experience wide - range short - term fluctuations. Concentrate processing fees are rising, and the supply of concentrates has improved significantly this year, with potential recovery in smelting supply. Similar to copper, it's necessary to monitor US tariff progress, the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance production [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information Metal Price and Market Analysis - Copper: Night - session copper prices closed higher. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with the power industry showing positive growth, automobile production and sales increasing, home appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak. The price may fluctuate within a range [2]. - Zinc: Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently, and domestic automobile production and sales are increasing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. This year, concentrate supply has improved significantly, and smelting supply may recover, leading to potential wide - range short - term price fluctuations [2]. Metal Market Data | Metal | Domestic Previous - Day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous - Day LME 3 - Month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M, USD/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 78,540 | 115 | 9,725 | - 81.01 | 156,350 | 1,200 | | Aluminum | 20,620 | 30 | 2,593 | - 0.47 | 479,525 | 0 | | Zinc | 22,260 | - 65 | 2,767 | - 7.54 | 71,250 | - 950 | | Nickel | 119,700 | - 1,380 | 14,929 | - 186.96 | 209,346 | 18 | | Lead | 16,745 | - 155 | 1,970 | - 38.38 | 281,100 | - 1,850 | | Tin | 266,480 | 2,100 | 33,475 | - 2.00 | 1,715 | 85 | [2]