尿素早评：出口预期影响市场-20250822

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The urea futures market has been falling for two consecutive days due to uncertainties in exports and real domestic supply - demand pressures. With agricultural demand in the off - season and domestic supply at a high level (daily production of about 190,000 tons and upstream inventory of about 860,000 tons), exports can help relieve the high - supply pressure. However, short - term excessive price increases should be guarded against as it may go against the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. It is recommended to focus on long - position opportunities after price corrections. (View score: 0) [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices on August 21st: UR01 was 1764 yuan/ton (-12 yuan or -0.56% compared to August 20th), UR09 was 1737 yuan/ton (-14 yuan or -0.80%), UR05 was 1797 yuan/ton (-13 yuan or -0.72%). Spot prices in some regions also declined, e.g., in Henan and Jiangsu, it dropped by 20 yuan/ton or -1.12%. [1] Key Information on Trading - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1790 yuan/ton, the highest was 1794 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1762 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1764 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1773 yuan/ton. The 2601 position was 205,717 lots. [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. Downstream, the price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan was stable at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong was unchanged at 5250 yuan/ton, while in Jiangsu it increased by 200 yuan/ton to 5300 yuan/ton (3.92% increase). [1] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities after price corrections. [1]