申万期货品种策略日报：贵金属-20250822

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - Gold and silver are oscillating, and the market is waiting for signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. Last week's unexpectedly high US inflation data pressured gold and silver, while positive signals from recent US - Russia negotiations eased geopolitical risks. The July non - farm payrolls data was below expectations and the previous value was significantly revised down. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, but there are divided views within the Fed, and Trump's personnel appointments affect market expectations. Trade negotiations have made progress in multiple aspects, but the overall trade environment is still deteriorating. The "Big and Beautiful" bill has increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit. The continuous increase in gold holdings by the People's Bank of China provides long - term support for gold, but gold is hesitant to rise at current high prices. Overall, gold and silver may show an oscillating trend as the expectation of interest rate cuts intensifies [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The current prices of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 776.08 and 778.06 respectively, with daily changes of 0.96 and 0, and daily change rates of 0.12% and 0.00%. The current prices of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 9233.00 and 9253.00 respectively, with daily changes of 71.00 and 69.00, and daily change rates of 0.77% and 0.75% [2] - Positions and Volumes: The positions of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 183215 and 133322 respectively, and the trading volumes are 128755 and 23298 respectively. The positions of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 307098 and 228190 respectively, and the trading volumes are 311338 and 67972 respectively [2] - Spot Premiums: The spot premiums of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are - 4.42 and - 6.40 respectively, and those of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are - 89.00 and - 109.00 respectively [2] Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold were 771.66 and 770.79 respectively, with daily changes of 1.83 and - 1.59, and daily change rates of 0.24% and - 0.21%. The previous day's closing price of London Gold (in dollars per ounce) was 3338.935, with a daily change of - 8.4 and a daily change rate of - 0.25%. The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Silver T + D and London Silver were 9144.00 and 38.12 respectively, with daily changes of 122.00 and 0.27, and daily change rates of 1.35% and 0.70% [2] - Price Ratios: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2510,沪银2512 - 沪银2510, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver are 1.98, 20, 84.39, 7.19, and 7.46 respectively, compared with previous values of 2.08, 22, 85.33, 7.15, and 7.41 [2] Inventory - Changes: The current inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver are 36,642 kg and 1,115,055 kg respectively, with changes of 60.00 kg and - 25,144.00 kg compared to the previous values. The current inventories of COMEX gold and silver are 38,573,764 and 508,499,193 respectively, with a change of 9,952.03 for COMEX gold and 0 for COMEX silver [2] Related Assets - Values and Changes: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 98.6526, 6370.17, 4.33, 67.67, and 7.1833 respectively, with changes of 0.42%, - 0.40%, 0.93%, 0.01%, and 0.03% compared to the previous values [2] Derivatives - Holdings and Changes: The current holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons each, with an increase of 1.00 ton compared to the previous values. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively, with changes of 481 and - 1451 compared to the previous values [2] Macroeconomic Information - Trade Agreement: The EU and the US issued a joint statement detailing a new trade agreement reached in July. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and timber. The EU promised to cancel tariffs on US industrial products, provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products, and plans to purchase $750 billion worth of US liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products and $40 billion worth of US artificial intelligence chips by 2028 [3] - Renewable Energy Stance: US President Trump criticized renewable energy as a "century - long scam". Even though the electricity demand in some US regions significantly exceeds supply, the US government will not approve new wind or photovoltaic projects. Trump blames the rising electricity prices in the US on renewable energy [3] - PMI Data: The preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 49.5. The service industry PMI slightly dropped to 55.4, but the significant rebound in manufacturing pushed the composite PMI to a 9 - month high of 55.4 [3] - Unemployment Data: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June, higher than the market expectation of 225,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week rose to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021 [3] - Real Estate Data: The National Association of Realtors in the US stated that the annualized sales of second - hand homes in July increased by 2% to 4.01 million units, higher than the market expectation of 3.92 million units. The median price of second - hand homes increased by 0.2% year - on - year, the slowest increase in two years [3]