养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20250822

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soybean Oil: The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The weak reality is reflected in high inventory and slow sales in the spot market, while the strong expectation is shown by fewer purchases in the fourth quarter, export drive, possible slowdown in oil mill crushing, and impending inventory reduction. Short - term callback space is expected to be limited, and it is still bullish in the medium - to - long - term. Consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may reduce domestic purchases from Canada. However, domestic rapeseed oil inventory is seasonally high, and traders are importing from other countries as a supplement. The price is expected to fluctuate, with limited room for further decline [1]. - Palm Oil: Malaysian palm oil production growth has slowed, and export demand is good. Domestic inventory has increased, and the basis is under short - term pressure. There is a short - term adjustment need, but support exists. Hold partial long positions after partial profit - taking [2]. - Soybean No. 2 and Soybean Meal: The possible soybean reserve release and US soybean import rotation (unconfirmed) have led to a decline in soybean No. 2 and soybean meal. Soybean meal is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" situation, and the short - term decline is limited. Consider going long after stabilization [2]. - Rapeseed Meal: The expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports and weak consumption have led to a decline in rapeseed meal prices. However, there is still an expectation of inventory reduction in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and see or go long at low prices [2]. - Corn and Corn Starch: The prices are expected to continue to be under pressure due to factors such as abundant supply from South America, increased US planting area, and continuous release of imported corn. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [4]. - Soybean No. 1: New domestic soybeans are gradually coming onto the market, increasing supply. The price is expected to be under pressure, but downstream replenishment during the back - to - school season may provide support. Hold short positions [5]. - Peanuts: The new season is expected to have increased production and lower costs, putting pressure on prices. Consider holding short positions for the 11 - contract [6]. - Hogs: The implementation of new regulations may affect cross - provincial transportation and increase secondary fattening costs. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to hold long positions for the 11 - contract and consider long - term long positions after capacity reduction is confirmed [6]. - Eggs: The current price is at a low level, and consumption is in the off - season. After the cost collapse risk is partially released, it is recommended to wait and see for the 09 - contract and consider going long for the 11 - contract at low prices [7]. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Judgment - Oilseeds: Soybean No. 1 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate, hold short positions; Soybean No. 2 09 - contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust, wait and see; Peanut 11 - contract is expected to be bearish, hold short positions; Soybean oil 01 - contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust, wait and see [10]. - Oils: Rapeseed oil 01 - contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust, wait and see; Palm 01 - contract is expected to be bullish, reduce long positions [10]. - Proteins: Soybean meal 01 - contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust, wait and see; Rapeseed meal 01 - contract is expected to fluctuate within a range, go long at low prices [10]. - Energy and By - products: Corn 11 - contract is expected to be bearish, hold short positions cautiously; Starch 11 - contract is expected to be bearish, hold short positions cautiously [10]. - Livestock Farming: Hog 11 - contract is expected to rebound, hold long positions; Egg 10 - contract is expected to find a bottom, wait and see [10]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - Oilseeds: For soybean No. 1 9 - 1, soybean No. 2 9 - 1, and peanut 10 - 11, wait and see; For soybean meal 3 - 5, conduct positive spread operations [11][12]. - Oils: For soybean oil 9 - 1, rapeseed oil 9 - 1, and palm oil 9 - 1, wait and see; For 09 soybean oil - palm oil, conduct bearish operations; For 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, conduct bullish operations; For 09 rapeseed oil - palm oil, wait and see [12]. - Proteins: For 09 soybean meal - rapeseed meal, it is in a low - level oscillation; For 09 soybean oil - meal ratio, go long; For 09 rapeseed oil - meal ratio, wait and see [12]. - Energy and By - products: For 11 starch - corn, wait and see [12]. - Livestock Farming: For hog 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1, conduct positive spread operations at low prices [12]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides spot prices, price changes, and basis changes for various commodities such as soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, peanuts, etc., which can be used for basis and spot - futures trading analysis [13]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds - Daily Data: It shows the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates, including to - shore premium, futures prices, CNF prices, and import duty - paid prices [15]. - Weekly Data: Presents the inventory and operating rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts, such as soybean port inventory, oil mill soybean meal inventory, etc. [17]. 2. Feed - Daily Data: Provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [17]. - Weekly Data: Shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [18]. 3. Livestock Farming - Daily Data: Displays the daily data of hogs and eggs, including spot prices, price changes, and basis in different regions [19][20]. - Weekly Data: Presents the weekly key data of hogs and eggs, such as breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and supply - demand data [21][22][23]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Livestock Farming (Hogs and Eggs): Includes charts of hog and egg futures prices, spot prices, and related prices such as piglet prices, chicken苗 prices, etc. [25][27][28][30][32][33][34]. - Oils and Oilseeds: - Palm Oil: Charts show Malaysian palm oil production, exports, inventory, import profit, domestic inventory, and price spreads [36][38][39]. - Soybean Oil: Charts display US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, domestic oil mill operating rate, and inventory [48][50][51]. - Peanuts: Charts present peanut arrival, shipment, processing profit, and inventory [53][54]. - Feed: - Corn: Charts show corn futures prices, spot prices, inventory, import volume, and processing profit [57][58]. - Corn Starch: Charts display corn starch futures prices, spot prices, operating rate, inventory, and processing profit [60][61]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: Charts show rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, basis, inventory, and processing profit [63][65][67][69]. - Soybean Meal: Charts present US soybean growth rates, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory [71]. Fourth Part: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils It shows the historical volatility of various commodities such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [73][74]. Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils Presents the warehouse receipt data of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [76][77][78].