中辉期货聚酯早报-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oil: Cautiously bearish [1][7][8] - LPG: Take profit on long positions [1][11][13] - L: Short - term bearish rebound, try to go long at lows [1][16][18] - PP: Short - term bearish rebound, try to go long on pullbacks [1][20][23] - PVC: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions [1][25][28] - PX: Bullish, hold long positions [1][30][32] - PTA: Bullish, hold long positions [2][34][37] - MEG: Bullish, hold long positions [2][39][41] - Methanol: Bullish, look for buying opportunities on 01 contract [3][43][45] - Urea: Cautiously bullish, hold 01 long positions [3][47][49] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish, lightly short [5][52][54] - Glass: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions [5][56][59] - Soda Ash: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions [5][61][64] 2. Report's Core Views - Oil: Short - term rebound due to inventory decline and new sanctions on Iran, but long - term downward trend due to geopolitical easing and supply surplus [1][7][8] - LPG: Pay attention to oil price changes at the cost end, take profit on long positions as the upstream oil supply exceeds demand [1][11][14] - L: The chemical sector rebounds at low valuations. Plastics have positive fundamental expectations, and it is advisable to try to go long at lows [1][16][18] - PP: Follow the chemical sector's rebound, but the supply is still under pressure. Try to go long on pullbacks [1][20][23] - PVC: Warehouse receipts increase, and there is pressure on the near - term contract. Reduce short positions at low prices [1][25][28] - PX: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but macro - policies are favorable. Hold long positions [1][30][32] - PTA: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and macro - factors are positive. Look for low - buying opportunities [2][34][37] - MEG: Total supply increases, but inventory is low. Hold long positions and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [2][39][41] - Methanol: Fundamentals are weak, but expectations are positive. Look for buying opportunities on the 01 contract [3][43][45] - Urea: Weak fundamentals, but the export window to India is open. Hold 01 long positions [3][47][49] - Asphalt: Oil price has room to decline, and supply increases. Lightly short [5][52][54] - Glass: Supply is under pressure, and demand is weak. Reduce short positions at low prices [5][56][59] - Soda Ash: Supply remains high, and inventory accumulates. Reduce short positions at low prices [5][61][64] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 1.29%, Brent up 0.42%, and SC up 0.98% [7] - Basic Logic: New sanctions on Iran and inventory decline led to a short - term rebound, but long - term pressure comes from OPEC+ production increase and weakening demand [8] - Fundamentals: Azerbaijan's oil exports decreased, India's imports hit a low, and US commercial crude inventory decreased [9] - Strategy Recommendation: Buy put options, focus on the range of [480 - 500] for SC [10] LPG - Market Review: On August 21, the PG main contract closed at 4386 yuan/ton, up 1.65% [12] - Basic Logic: Cost - end oil price rebounds, and the valuation is reasonable. Supply increases slightly, and demand from some downstream industries declines [13] - Strategy Recommendation: Be wary of the weakening of the cost - end oil price and take profit on long positions. Focus on the range of [4350 - 4450] for PG [14] L - Market Review: The L2601 contract closed at 7386 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan [18] - Basic Logic: The chemical sector rebounds at low valuations. Plastic fundamentals are expected to improve, with increased maintenance and approaching peak demand season [18] - Strategy Recommendation: Try to go long at lows, focus on the range of [7300 - 7500] for L [18] PP - Market Review: The PP2601 contract closed at 7048 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [22] - Basic Logic: Oil price stabilizes, and the chemical sector is strong. Supply is under pressure, but demand in the peak season starts, and prices have support at the bottom [23] - Strategy Recommendation: Try to go long on pullbacks, focus on the range of [7000 - 7200] for PP [23] PVC - Market Review: The V2601 contract closed at 5008 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [27] - Basic Logic: Warehouse receipts increase, export negatives are realized, and inventory accumulates. Supply may increase in the future [28] - Strategy Recommendation: Reduce short positions at low prices, focus on the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [28] PX - Market Review: On August 15, the PX11 contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [30] - Basic Logic: Supply - side devices slightly increase production, demand - side PTA processing fees are low, and inventory is high. Macro - policies are favorable [31][32] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions, look for buying opportunities on pullbacks, and sell put options. Focus on the range of [6918 - 7020] for PX511 [32] PTA - Market Review: On August 15, the TA01 contract closed at 4716 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [36] - Basic Logic: PTA processing fees are low, supply - side devices reduce production, and demand is expected to pick up during the peak season. Macro - factors are positive [37] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions, buy put options, and look for buying opportunities on TA pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4840 - 4920] for TA01 [38] MEG - Market Review: On August 15, the EG09 contract closed at 4369 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [40] - Basic Logic: Supply increases slightly, but inventory is low. Demand is expected to rebound during the peak season, and macro - policies are favorable [41] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions, do not chase the market, and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4460 - 4530] for EG01 [42] Methanol - Market Review: On August 15, the methanol main 01 contract closed at 2412 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan [44] - Basic Logic: Supply pressure increases as domestic and overseas devices resume production. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. But there are positive expectations [45] - Strategy Recommendation: Look for buying opportunities on the 01 contract at lows and sell 01 put options. Focus on the range of [2405 - 2445] for MA01 [46] Urea - Market Review: On August 15, the urea main contract closed at 1737 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [48] - Basic Logic: Supply increases as device maintenance decreases. Domestic demand is weak, but export is good. There is support at the cost end [49][50] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold 01 long positions, sell call options due to increased short - term volatility. Focus on the range of [1760 - 1800] for UR01 [51] Asphalt - Market Review: On August 21, the BU main contract closed at 3464 yuan/ton, up 0.32% [53] - Basic Logic: Oil price has room to decline, supply increases, and inventory decreases slightly. Valuation is high [54] - Strategy Recommendation: Lightly short, focus on the range of [3400 - 3500] for BU [55] Glass - Market Review: The FG2601 contract closed at 1156 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [58] - Basic Logic: Supply is under pressure with new production lines expected to start. Demand is weak due to low downstream orders and falling real - estate completion area [59] - Strategy Recommendation: Reduce short positions at low prices, focus on the range of [1140 - 1200] for FG [59] Soda Ash - Market Review: The SA2601 contract closed at 1306 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [63] - Basic Logic: Supply remains high with insufficient planned maintenance. Demand is mostly rigid, and inventory accumulates [64] - Strategy Recommendation: Reduce short positions at low prices, focus on the range of [1280 - 1350] for SA [64]