中辉农产品观点-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Beans Meal: Short - term adjustment [1] - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term adjustment [1] - Palm Oil: Short - term bullish [1] - Cotton: Cautiously bullish [1] - Red Dates: Cautiously bullish [1] - Live Pigs: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Beans Meal: With neutral climate expectations and smooth US soybean planting weather, China's soybean and beans meal are in the inventory accumulation stage. The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report adjusted the final soybean production and ending stocks downward. Beans meal is under pressure for adjustment, and short - long opportunities after adjustment can be considered in the next one to two weeks [1][5]. - Rapeseed Meal: Global rapeseed production has recovered year - on - year, but there is a risk of reduced yield in Canada. High inventory and high warehouse receipts, along with improved China - Australia trade, have cooled market speculation. After adjustment, short - long opportunities after stabilization can be considered, but chasing long positions should be cautious [1][7]. - Palm Oil: Indonesia and Malaysia's biodiesel policies are favorable for palm oil consumption expectations, and China and India have purchasing needs. The fundamental outlook is bullish, and the idea of buying on dips is recommended [1][8]. - Cotton: The short - term soil moisture of US cotton has improved, which is negative for the market, but the international cotton price valuation is low. Zheng cotton's short - term focus is on supply before new cotton listing. Buying on dips can be considered [1][13]. - Red Dates: The expected total production of Xinjiang southern gray dates in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be between 50 - 58 million tons, with a certain reduction. Before November, the market speculation around the opening price is long, and short - long opportunities can be considered [1][15]. - Live Pigs: The current supply pressure is high, but the incremental space is shrinking. Long - position opportunities for far - month contracts can be considered, and short - selling on a short - term basis is not recommended blindly [1][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Beans Meal - Price Information: The futures price of beans meal (main contract daily closing) is 3113 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan or 1.49% from the previous day; the national average spot price is 3097.14 yuan/ton, down 4.57 yuan or 0.15% [3]. - Inventory Information: As of August 15, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 892.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.20 million tons from last week; the beans meal inventory is 101.47 million tons, an increase of 1.12 million tons or 1.12% from last week [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Consider short - long opportunities after adjustment in the next one to two weeks, paying attention to the final US soybean area and yield data [5]. Rapeseed Meal - Price Information: The futures price of rapeseed meal (main contract daily closing) is 2561 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan or 2.51% from the previous day; the national average spot price is 2627.89 yuan/ton, down 47.37 yuan or 1.77% [6]. - Inventory Information: As of August 15, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 11.5 million tons, a decrease of 2.38 million tons from last week; rapeseed meal inventory is 2.55 million tons, a decrease of 0.65 million tons from last week [7]. - Operation Suggestion: Consider short - long opportunities after adjustment and stabilization, but be cautious when chasing long positions [7]. Palm Oil - Inventory Information: As of August 15, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory is 61.73 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons or 2.92% from last week [8]. - Export Information: Malaysia's palm oil product exports from August 1 - 20, 2025, are 869,780 tons, an increase of 17.5% from the same period last month [8]. - Operation Suggestion: Adopt a buying - on - dips strategy, paying attention to the impact of the Russia - Ukraine negotiation on crude oil prices and the estimated inventory of Malaysian palm oil this month [8]. Cotton - Price Information: The main contract of Zheng cotton, CF2509, increases by 0.11% to 14030 yuan/ton; the domestic spot price drops by 0.19% to 15211 yuan/ton; the main contract of ICE cotton drops by 0.19% to 67.47 cents/pound [11]. - Supply and Demand Information: In the US, the drought area in the cotton - growing region expands, and the excellent - good rate of US cotton increases by 2% to 55%. In China, Xinjiang's new cotton production is expected to exceed 740 million tons, and the import volume in July is 5 million tons. The domestic cotton commercial inventory decreases by 15.06 million tons to 185.61 million tons [11][12]. - Operation Suggestion: Consider，buying on dips due to the low international cotton price valuation and the supply - tight situation before new cotton listing [13]. Red Dates - Price Information: The main contract of red dates, CJ2601, increases by 0.39% to 11470 yuan/ton [14]. - Production and Inventory Information: The expected total production of Xinjiang southern gray dates in the 2025/26 season is between 50 - 58 million tons, and the inventory of 36 sample enterprises decreases by 167 tons to 9519 tons [15]. - Operation Suggestion: Consider short - long opportunities as the market speculation around the opening price is long before November [15]. Live Pigs - Price Information: The main contract of live pigs, Lh2511, decreases by 0.18% to 13765 yuan/ton; the domestic live pig spot price drops by 0.07% to 13820 yuan/ton [16][17]. - Supply and Demand Information: The planned August slaughter volume of Steel Union sample enterprises increases by 5.26% month - on - month. The number of newborn piglets from January to July increases, but the increment of breeding sows slows down. The downstream demand is gradually recovering [16][17]. - Operation Suggestion: Do not blindly short - sell on a short - term basis. Consider establishing long positions for far - month contracts on dips [18].