Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On the 21st, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 8,635 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 3.66%, and the position increasing by 3,710 lots to 284,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9,407 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 8,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 170 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 51,530 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 1.28%, and the position decreasing by 476 lots to 149,600 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon materials rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon materials dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 7,015 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon production in the southwest continued to increase, while the organic silicon industry reduced production and procurement. The increase in polysilicon production is expected to be limited, and the inventory depletion of industrial silicon has slowed down. There is obvious upward pressure, and it will still follow the fluctuation rhythm of coal and coke within the range. Polysilicon shows a strong separation between quantity and price, with a contradiction between cost pricing and rising production. Warehouse receipt registration cannot relieve the pressure on factory inventories. There are rumors that the production quota for the photovoltaic industry may be expanded at a photovoltaic conference, and there are numerous and divergent market price adjustment and production restriction news. Downstream players are highly cautious and there is little trading activity, which limits the continuous upward movement of polysilicon prices. In the short term, it is advisable to mainly short at the upper edge of the range and continuously monitor the dynamics of industrial production restriction news [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,330 yuan/ton on the 20th to 8,595 yuan/ton on the 21st, a rise of 265 yuan/ton. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot decreased by 109 yuan/ton to 9,407 yuan/ton. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 8,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 170 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipt increased by 553 to 51,166, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 1,295 tons to 252,995 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 100 tons to 439,900 tons [2][4]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 51,875 yuan/ton on the 20th to 51,530 yuan/ton on the 21st, a drop of 345 yuan/ton. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon materials rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon materials remained at 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 7,015 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 90 to 6,460, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 168,000 tons. The total social inventory of polysilicon decreased by 6,000 tons to 268,000 tons [2][4]. - Organic Silicon: The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 11,000 yuan/ton, the price of raw rubber remained at 12,300 yuan/ton, the price of 107 glue remained at 11,800 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices: The report presents charts on various aspects such as industrial silicon prices of different grades, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. - Downstream Product Prices: Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16]. - Inventory: Charts display the inventory of industrial silicon (including futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes), DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][22]. - Cost - Profit: Charts present the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][32]. 4. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, an intermediate investment analyst in gold, an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of experience in commodity research, serves many leading spot enterprises, has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and is frequently interviewed by multiple media. His team has won awards such as the 15th and 16th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Awards of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the Outstanding Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team Title of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [34]. - Wang Heng: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He focuses on domestic non - ferrous industry research, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for clients, and has written many in - depth reports [34]. - Zhu Xi: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for clients [35].
光大期货工业硅日报-20250822
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-08-22 03:44