光大期货金融期货日报-20250822

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not mentioned in the provided content. Core Views of the Report - The stock market is expected to fluctuate. The recent rise in the stock market is mainly due to three logics: in the long - term, the market anticipates more fiscal policies to stimulate consumption and an increase in domestic inflation after the easing of Sino - US relations, with foreign capital flowing in and usually buying large - cap growth stocks; in the medium - term, the anti - involution trend and infrastructure investment on the demand side benefit upstream cyclical sectors; in the short - term, the capital market has relatively abundant liquidity due to RMB appreciation under a weak US dollar and improved corporate deposit and loan data [1]. - The bond market is expected to fluctuate. In the short term, the bond market is under pressure due to the recovery of risk appetite, but with no significant changes in the capital and fundamental aspects, there is no clear directional driver for the bond market [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views Stock Index - On August 21, the A - share market closed down with oscillations. The Wind All - A index fell 0.13% with a trading volume of 2.46 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index dropped 0.71%, the CSI 500 index declined 0.36%, while the SSE 50 index rose 0.53% and the SSE 300 index increased 0.39%. Policies such as personal consumer loan interest subsidies and the implementation of the parenting subsidy program are expected to boost consumption and inflation. It is predicted that the central bank will purchase national debt to raise funds for the central government and introduce more inclusive fiscal support programs to stabilize and increase inflation [1]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures closed higher on August 21. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.34%, 0.07%, 0.06%, and 0.02% respectively. The central bank conducted 253 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 124.3 billion yuan. The weighted average rates of DR001 and DR007 decreased by 7bp and 5bp to 1.46% and 1.51% respectively. The LPR in August remained unchanged, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.00% and the over - 5 - year LPR at 3.50% [3]. Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures on August 21, IH rose 0.50%, IF increased 0.29%, IC dropped 0.58%, and IM declined 1.01%. For stock indices, the SSE 50 rose 0.53%, the SSE 300 increased 0.39%, the CSI 500 fell 0.36%, and the CSI 1000 dropped 0.71%. For treasury bond futures, TS rose 0.03%, TF increased 0.08%, T rose 0.02%, and TL increased 0.05% [4]. Market News - At the HKEX's 2025 interim results meeting, some market participants suggested extending trading hours. The HKEX CEO's response was misinterpreted. The HKEX stated that it is committed to providing more convenience to investors and is open to relevant suggestions, but extending trading hours has a significant impact on the market and requires careful consideration and consultation with all market participants [5]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, including the closing prices of corresponding stock index futures and the basis trends over time [7][8][9][10]. Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][15][16][17]. Exchange Rates - The report includes charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, and exchange rates of the euro, pound, and yen against the US dollar [20][21][22][24][25].