光大期货能化商品日报-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall: All the futures varieties in the report are expected to show an oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the possible fluctuations of oil prices under the unstable geopolitical situation [1][3]. - Crude Oil: On Thursday, oil prices continued to rebound. The current Russia - Ukraine meeting still has certain uncertainties, and oil prices are slowly recovering from a pessimistic sentiment [1]. - Fuel Oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil market is suppressed by sufficient supply and weak downstream demand, while the high - sulfur market shows signs of stabilization, and supply reduction in September may support the market [3]. - Asphalt: Supply is expected to increase in the second half of August, and demand in the north is relatively stable while that in the east is expected to recover. The market is expected to show a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices oscillating within a range [3]. - Polyester: PX supply and demand continue to recover, and PTA prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Ethylene glycol supply recovers well, and downstream demand is gradually improving [5]. - Rubber: Rubber raw materials are firm, tire demand and production are recovering, and the short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly [5][7]. - Methanol: Domestic device maintenance has led to a short - term low in supply, and overseas shipments are stable. Port inventory is expected to increase, and methanol prices will oscillate narrowly [7]. - Polyolefins: Supply will remain high, and with the approaching of the peak demand season, downstream demand is expected to increase. Overall, it will show a narrow - range oscillating pattern [7][8]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): Supply remains high, demand is gradually picking up. With the intervention of industrial hedging, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: WTI October contract rose $0.81/barrel to $63.52/barrel, a 1.29% increase. Brent October contract rose $0.83/barrel to $67.67/barrel, a 1.24% increase. SC2510 contract closed at 492.9 yuan/barrel at night, a 1.27% increase. There are uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine situation, and some oil fields have restarted production [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Thursday, the main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil both rose. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories decreased. The low - sulfur market is under pressure from supply, while the high - sulfur market may be supported by supply reduction in September [3]. - Asphalt: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract rose. This week, domestic asphalt shipments decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to recover [3]. - Polyester: TA601 rose 1.72%, EG2601 fell 0.09%. Some PTA devices are under planned - out maintenance, and downstream demand is showing signs of recovery [5]. - Rubber: On Thursday, the prices of various rubber futures rose. The operating loads of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5][7]. - Methanol: On Thursday, methanol prices in different regions were reported. Domestic device maintenance led to a short - term low in supply, and overseas shipments were stable. Port inventory is expected to increase [7]. - Polyolefins: On Thursday, the prices of polyolefin products changed. Supply will remain high, and demand is expected to increase with the approaching of the peak season [7][8]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On Thursday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China increased. Supply remains high, demand is gradually picking up, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical varieties on August 22, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump said that the result of the Russia - Ukraine issue would be known in about two weeks, and the US might adopt other strategies. The Trump administration is expected to double the tariffs on India on August 27 [12]. - Two oil tankers chartered by Chevron carrying Venezuelan crude oil arrived in US waters on Thursday, which was the first import of Venezuelan oil after Chevron obtained a new license from the US government [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [14][17][20]. - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., and their historical trends [31][33][37]. - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report provides the spread charts between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., including 01 - 05, 09 - 01 spreads [46][48][51]. - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: It includes the spread charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, and the ratio charts of some varieties [62][66][68]. - 4.5 Production Profits: The report shows the production profit charts of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc [73][76][78]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - Zhong Meiyan: The assistant director of the institute and the director of energy - chemical research, with rich experience in futures derivatives market research and many honors [80]. - Du Bingqin: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry and many awards [81]. - Di Yilin: An analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with strong data analysis ability and many honors [82]. - Peng Haibo: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and relevant professional qualifications [83].