桃李面包（603866）：Q2经营承压，期待后续改善

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the investment rating to "Cautious Recommendation" [6] Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 2.61 billion yuan, down 13.6% year-on-year, and net profit at 200 million yuan, down 29.7% year-on-year [1][4] - The second quarter of 2025 continued to show operational pressure, with revenue of 1.41 billion yuan, down 13.0% year-on-year, and net profit of 120 million yuan, down 31.4% year-on-year [1][2] - The company is actively adjusting its product offerings and expanding its market presence to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and competitive pressures [3][4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 5.41 billion yuan, 5.66 billion yuan, and 5.94 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -11.1%, +4.5%, and +5.0% respectively [4][5] - The expected net profits for the same period are 428 million yuan, 476 million yuan, and 517 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -18.1%, +11.3%, and +8.6% respectively [4][5] Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin for Q2 2025 was 23.8%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the limited effect of fixed cost dilution from declining revenue [3] - The total number of distributors increased to 971 by the end of H1 2025, with a net addition of 18 distributors compared to Q1 [2]