有色金属数据日报-20250822

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - China's July social retail sales year-on-year growth slowed to 3.7%, and the total retail sales of automobiles turned negative year-on-year; US July retail sales increased 0.5% month-on-month, and real retail sales have increased for ten consecutive months, but the University of Michigan consumer confidence unexpectedly declined in August, with both short- and long-term inflation expectations rising [1] - For copper, the Fed's meeting minutes showed concerns about inflation, with a hawkish tone. The LME copper spot discount has widened recently, the copper import window has opened periodically, and downstream demand is in the off - season, so the copper price has limited downside space [1] - For aluminum, the Fed's meeting minutes are hawkish. Domestically, the downstream demand for aluminum is under pressure, and inventory is accumulating, so the aluminum price may be weak [1] - For zinc, there are both positive and negative factors in the macro - environment. The zinc production is recovering, and the social inventory is increasing, which suppresses the zinc price, but there is still a risk of a short squeeze in LME zinc [1] - For nickel, the macro - sentiment has cooled slightly. The global nickel inventory is at a high level, and the short - term nickel price fluctuates with the macro - situation. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations and selling hedging opportunities at high prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Indicators - LME copper spot price is 9576.5 dollars/ton, down 0.47%; 15:00 futures price is 9700.5 dollars/ton, down 0.05% [1] - LME zinc spot price is 2763 dollars/ton, up 0.18%; 15:00 futures price is 2786 dollars/ton, up 0.78% [1] - LME aluminum spot price is 1929 dollars/ton, down 0.16%; 15:00 futures price is 2574 dollars/ton, up 0.25% [1] - LME nickel spot price is 14780 dollars/ton, down 0.71%; 15:00 futures price is 15015 dollars/ton, down 0.3% [1] - LME tin spot price is 33800 dollars/ton, down 0.57%; 15:00 futures price is 33755 dollars/ton, down 0.25% [1] - SHFE copper spot price is 78910 dollars/ton, up 0.15%; 15:00 futures price is 78540 dollars/ton, down 0.13% [1] - SHFE zinc spot price is 22280 dollars/ton, up 0.59%; 15:00 futures price is 22240 dollars/ton, down 0.11% [1] - SHFE aluminum spot price is 20690 dollars/ton, up 0.93%; 15:00 futures price is 20590 dollars/ton, up 0.27% [1] - SHFE nickel spot price is 121460 dollars/ton, up 0.24%; 15:00 futures price is 119830 dollars/ton, down 0.08% [1] Inventory Indicators - LME copper futures inventory is 156350 tons, unchanged; the warehouse - receipt cancellation ratio is 7.26% [1] - LME zinc futures inventory is 69375 tons, down 2.63%; the warehouse - receipt cancellation ratio is 37.12% [1] - LME aluminum futures inventory is 479525 tons, unchanged; the warehouse - receipt cancellation ratio is 2.93% [1] - LME nickel futures inventory is 209598 tons, up 0.12%; the warehouse - receipt cancellation ratio is 3.81% [1] - LME tin futures inventory is 1740 tons, up 1.46%; the warehouse - receipt cancellation ratio is 5.83% [1] - SHFE copper futures inventory is 86361 tons, up 5.4%; the warehouse - receipt is 25157 tons, down 0.26% [1] - SHFE zinc futures inventory is 76803 tons, up 16.51%; the warehouse - receipt is 32288 tons, unchanged [1] - SHFE aluminum futures inventory is 120653 tons, up 6.2%; the warehouse - receipt is 59890 tons, down 4.84% [1] Ascending and Descending Premium Indicators - LME copper's previous - day ascending and descending premium was - 96.9 dollars/ton, the current - day was - 90.8 dollars/ton, a change of 6.1 dollars/ton [1] - LME zinc's previous - day ascending and descending premium was - 10.3 dollars/ton, the current - day was - 9.3 dollars/ton, a change of 0.93 dollars/ton [1] - LME aluminum's previous - day ascending and descending premium was - 3.6 dollars/ton, the current - day was - 2.3 dollars/ton, a change of 1.31 dollars/ton [1] - SHFE copper's previous - day ascending and descending premium was 190 yuan/ton, the current - day was 160 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton [1] - SHFE zinc's previous - day ascending and descending premium was - 50 yuan/ton, the current - day was - 40 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton [1] Ratio and Spread Indicators - The previous - day copper Shanghai - London ratio was 8.1, the current - day was 8.1, a change of - 0.37% [1] - The previous - day zinc Shanghai - London ratio was 8, the current - day was 8.1, a change of 0.74% [1] - The previous - day copper SHFE near - month minus continuous - three spread was 30 yuan/ton, the current - day was 60 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton [1] - The previous - day zinc SHFE near - month minus continuous - three spread was 40 yuan/ton, the current - day was 35 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton [1]