铝锭：旺季预期逐步到来，关注宏观指引，成材：重心下移偏弱运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation [2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown time is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on building steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one started shutting down on January 5, and most of the others will shut down around mid - January. Individual mills may shut down after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, hitting a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity moves down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, aluminum prices fluctuated. The market is paying attention to Fed Chairman Powell's speech on Friday to find clues about a possible interest - rate cut next month. New trade tariffs and inflation risks make some policymakers cautious about easing policies [1] - In terms of fundamentals, aluminum production is increasing slightly. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, under the influence of the off - season, terminal and processed material consumption is hard to exceed expectations. The growth of some industries has slowed down, and some export orders have declined. The construction industry is still in a super - seasonal decline [2] - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%. In some sub - sectors, the operating rate increased, while the recycled aluminum operating rate decreased slightly [2] - It is expected that the aluminum cable and aluminum strip sectors will continue to recover in late August, and the "Golden September and Silver October" may further boost aluminum foil and aluminum profile demand [2] - On August 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream domestic consumption areas was 596,000 tons, down 11,000 tons from Monday and up 8,000 tons from last Thursday [2] - Macro - level interest - rate cut expectations are fluctuating. It is expected to move within a range in the near term, and follow - up attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend. The off - season and its actual impact may still put pressure on the upside [3]