Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - The Fed's rate cut expectations have cooled, and global electrolytic copper inventories are oscillating upwards. However, due to fiscal easing in many countries around the world leading to inflation expectations, Shanghai copper prices may remain volatile. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support levels and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3] Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - For the Shanghai copper futures active contract on August 21, 2025, the closing price was 78,540, a decrease of 100 from the previous day; the trading volume was 43,058 lots, a decrease of 13,080 lots; the open interest was 128,034 lots, a decrease of 7,831 lots; and the inventory was 25,157 tons, a decrease of 66 tons [2] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,800, an increase of 30 from the previous day; the Shanghai copper basis was 260, an increase of 130; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was 60, unchanged; the spot premium/discount in North China was -50, an increase of 10; and the spot premium/discount in East China was 50, a decrease of 15 [2] - The spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 30, an increase of 20; the spread between the first continuous and the second continuous contract was 20, unchanged; the spread between the second continuous and the first continuous contract was 10, an increase of 10 [2] - The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,724.5, an increase of 4 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 156,350 tons; the spread of the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract was - 81.01, an increase of 9.74; the spread of the LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract was - 171.62, a decrease of 5.14; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.0765, a decrease of 0.01 [2] - The closing price of the COMEX copper futures active contract was 4.448, an increase of 0.02 from the previous day; the total inventory was 271,696 tons, an increase of 1,753 tons [2] Industry News - Indonesian copper concentrate exports have reached 65% of the approved quota as of mid - August, and are expected to account for 90% of the quota this year [2] - Due to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Tianjin from August 20 to September 3, freight vehicle controls have tightened market logistics, and the upcoming centralized maintenance period of upstream smelters has led to a tight supply of electrolytic copper spot in North China [2] - Codelco will lower its 2025 copper production guidance target. Due to the accident at the El Teniente copper mine, the refined copper production of this division is expected to decrease by 33,000 metric tons, and the copper sales profit will decline by $233 million. The economic loss caused by the production cut is $340 million [2] - Jianfa Shenghai plans to invest 12.15 billion yuan (Jianfa holds 51%), and the project is expected to be put into operation in May 2026, with an annual production of 600,000 tons of cathode copper and other products [2] - First Quantum has launched a $1.25 - billion expansion project at its Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia [2] Industry Operation - The daily processing fee for refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China has increased compared to last week. The operating rate of China's refined copper rod (recycled copper rod) production capacity has increased (decreased) compared to last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises has decreased (decreased), and the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises has increased (increased) [3] - The operating rate of China's copper wire and cable production capacity has decreased compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises has decreased (increased) [3] - The order volume (operating rate) of China's copper enameled wire has decreased (decreased) compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper enameled wire enterprises have decreased (decreased) [3] - The operating rate (production volume) of China's copper plate and strip has decreased (decreased) compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper plate and strip enterprises have decreased (remained flat) [3] - The operating rate of China's copper tube has decreased compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper tube enterprises have increased (decreased) [3] - The operating rate of China's brass rod has increased compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of brass rod enterprises have decreased (decreased) [3] Investment Strategy - Affected by the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season of consumption, the operating rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic copper product enterprises in August may decline (increase, decrease, decrease) month - on - month. Specifically, the operating rates of electrolytic copper rods, copper plate and strip, copper foil, and brass rods may increase month - on - month, while the operating rates of recycled copper rods, copper wire and cables, copper enameled wires, and copper tubes may decline month - on - month [3] - Domestic electrolytic copper traders have no pressure to sell and are reluctant to cut prices significantly, while downstream processing enterprises have weak demand and weak spot purchases [3]
沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减，国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少-20250822
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-22 05:15