农产品日报：供需博弈，猪价维持震荡-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy is cautious and bearish for both the pig and egg markets [3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints - For the pig market, future supply - side pressure will persist, and if the consumption side recovers, the supply - side slaughter volume will increase synchronously. Supply is expected to remain high until March next year. The fourth - quarter consumption and secondary fattening can support prices, and if frozen products increase significantly, prices may drop to near the cost price [2] - For the egg market, it has entered the pre - Mid - Autumn Festival stocking period. Although there are factors such as difficult egg storage and cautious purchasing by traders, overall demand is increasing. Spot prices are expected to fluctuate upwards, but attention should be paid to the impact of cold - storage egg outflows on the spot market [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2509 contract yesterday was 13,765 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan/ton (- 0.07%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of outer three - yuan live pigs was 13.60 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.09 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 13.87 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.02 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.55 yuan/kg, a change of + 0.00 yuan/kg. The national average wholesale price of pork in agricultural product markets was 20.03 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday. Beef rose 0.4%, mutton rose 0.1%, eggs rose 1.4%, and white - striped chickens fell 0.6% [1] Market Analysis - Supply pressure will continue. Based on the breeding sow data, the supply is expected to remain high until March next year. Fourth - quarter consumption and secondary fattening can support prices, and a significant increase in frozen products may lead to price drops to near the cost price [2] Strategy - Cautious and bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2509 contract yesterday was 3010 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of - 62.00 yuan (- 2.02%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.24 yuan/jin; in Shandong, it was 3.25 yuan/jin; in Hebei, it was 2.64 yuan/jin. On August 21, the national production - link inventory was 0.77 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.1 days, both unchanged from yesterday [3][4] Market Analysis - It has entered the pre - Mid - Autumn Festival stocking period. Although there are factors such as difficult egg storage and cautious purchasing by traders, overall demand is increasing. Spot prices are expected to fluctuate upwards, but attention should be paid to the impact of cold - storage egg outflows on the spot market [5] Strategy - Cautious and bearish [6]