有色商品日报-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and the domestic spot import window remained open. US economic data reduced market bets on consecutive Fed rate cuts, and Trump's claim of a US - EU trade deal is beneficial for reducing the US trade deficit. LME copper inventory remained stable, Comex inventory increased, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. As the seasonal off - season nears its end, downstream orders are expected to pick up, and the low scrap copper开工 rate is conducive to refined copper substitution. The copper market is in a balanced state between bulls and bears, waiting for external factors to break the current oscillation [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The fundamental support for alumina weakened, but short - term deep declines are limited. As the "Golden September" peak season approaches, the pressure from short - sellers may ease. The increase in aluminum ingot casting volume and early restocking by some end - user sectors have led to an uneven inventory build - up. Electrolytic aluminum continues to follow a "time - for - space" rhythm [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories increased. The cost support for stainless steel remains, and the nickel iron transaction price center has shifted upward. Overall, the nickel market fundamentals have changed little and are in an oscillatory state [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: The US 8 - month Markit composite PMI initial value was 55.4, the manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3, and the service PMI initial value was 55.4. LME copper inventory was 156,350 tons, Comex inventory increased by 1,052 tons to 246,480 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 66 tons to 25,157 tons, and BC copper decreased by 599 tons to 6,125 tons [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, AO2601 closed at 3,151 yuan/ton with a 0.06% increase, AL2510 closed at 20,720 yuan/ton with a 0.58% increase, and AD2511 closed at 20,230 yuan/ton with a 0.52% increase. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3,244 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot was at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton [1]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.7% to 14,940 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.36% to 119,760 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 252 tons to 209,598 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 29 tons to 22,588 tons [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On August 21, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 78,760 yuan/ton, and the premium was 120 yuan/ton. The 1 bright scrap copper price in Guangdong remained at 73,100 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory remained unchanged at 156,350 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 66 tons to 25,157 tons, and the total domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 21.8 million tons [3]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,740 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous day. LME lead inventory decreased by 1,500 tons to 279,600 tons, and SHFE lead warehouse receipts decreased by 1,481 tons to 59,422 tons [3]. - Aluminum: The Wuxi aluminum price was 20,720 yuan/ton, and the Nanhai price was 20,630 yuan/ton. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 479,525 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 3,048 tons to 59,890 tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 2.2 million tons to 6.7 million tons [4]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 122,350 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous day. LME nickel inventory increased by 252 tons to 209,598 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 29 tons to 22,588 tons [4]. - Zinc: The main contract settlement price was 22,285 yuan/ton, up 0.3%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,875 tons to 69,375 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.24 million tons to 11.74 million tons [5]. - Tin: The main contract settlement price was 267,650 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. LME tin inventory increased by 25 tons to 1,740 tons, and SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased by 71 tons to 7,258 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][14]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][19][20]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and 304 stainless steel smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44]. 3.4 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange. He has over a decade of commodity research experience and has published dozens of professional articles [49]. - Wang Heng: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [49]. - Zhu Xi: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [50].