光大期货软商品日报-20250822

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.19% to 67.47 cents per pound on Thursday, while CF601 rose 0.11% to 14,030 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions increased by 3,484 lots to 482,000 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang decreased by 42 yuan per ton to 15,038 yuan per ton, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B decreased by 30 yuan per ton to 15,210 yuan per ton. The international market has limited overall drivers, with both fundamentals and macro - factors showing no significant disturbances. The U.S. dollar index and U.S. cotton prices are mainly in a volatile state. The domestic market has increased stock index fluctuations and changing market sentiment. Zhengzhou cotton maintains a volatile trend. The current tight commercial cotton inventory supports cotton prices, and the market's focus will shift to new cotton. New cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, which puts pressure on the upside, but the over - capacity of ginning factories and pre - sales of new cotton support the purchase expectations. In the future, Zhengzhou cotton has support at the bottom but needs more drivers to rise, and it is expected to be in a firm and volatile state in the short term [2]. - For sugar, SCA Brasil predicts that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 crushing season will drop to 39.1 million tons. The spot quotes of Guangxi sugar - making groups range from 5,890 to 6,000 yuan per ton, Yunnan sugar - making groups from 5,770 to 5,820 yuan per ton, and processing sugar factories from 6,050 to 6,200 yuan per ton, with a few increasing by 10 yuan per ton. The fluctuation range of raw sugar futures prices continues to narrow, and there is no new news about Brazil's sugarcane crushing. It is difficult to break through in the short term, and the mid - term impact of macro - factors should be noted. The domestic futures price rebounded slightly, with little change in trading volume and a slight increase in positions. The trend is not obvious, and investors can consider selling out - of - the - money put options. The import data for August should be monitored in the mid - term [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 contract spread is - 260, a decrease of 5 compared to the previous period. The main - contract basis is 1,180, a decrease of 5. The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton is 15,038 yuan per ton, a decrease of 42 yuan per ton, and the national price is 15,210 yuan per ton, a decrease of 30 yuan per ton [3]. - Sugar: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 46, a decrease of 16 compared to the previous period. The main - contract basis is 302, a decrease of 12. The spot price in Nanning is 5,970 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Liuzhou is 5,990 yuan per ton, also unchanged [3]. 2. Market Information - On August 21, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 7,335, a decrease of 120 from the previous trading day, with 188 valid forecasts [4]. - On August 21, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,038 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,274 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,208 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,328 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On August 21, the comprehensive load of yarn was 49.6, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 27.6, a decrease of 0.7; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 48.4, unchanged from the previous day; and the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 32.4, a decrease of 0.1 [4]. - On August 21, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,970 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Liuzhou was 5,990 yuan per ton, also unchanged [4]. - On August 21, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 15,751, a decrease of 493 from the previous trading day, with 1 valid forecast [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price of the main contract, the basis of the main contract, the 9 - 1 spread, the difference between domestic and foreign prices under the 1% tariff quota, the number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index [7][10][15][18].