提涨暂未落地,双焦震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-22 05:23
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of coking coal and coke are fluctuating as the price increase has not been implemented yet; glass and soda ash prices are oscillating within a narrow range due to supply disturbances; ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices are also fluctuating with the intertwining of long - short games [1][3] - Glass is expected to be weak and oscillating, and soda ash is also expected to be weak and oscillating; silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market oscillated within a narrow range. The spot market was mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the speculative sentiment weakened. This week, the开工 rate of float glass enterprises was 75.34%, unchanged from the previous week, and the manufacturer's inventory was 63.606 million heavy boxes, a 0.28% increase from the previous week [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market oscillated weakly. The downstream spot market was mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. This week, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.48%, a 1.15% increase from the previous week; the output was 771,400 tons, a 1.32% increase from the previous week; and the inventory was 1.9108 million tons, a 0.9% increase from the previous week [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: The supply - demand contradiction of glass is still large. With the previous price increase, the glass output increased significantly, and the pressure to reduce high inventory is great. The premium of the futures market has been quickly repaired. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies on the supply and demand sides of glass [1] - Soda Ash: With the implementation of new production capacity in the later stage and the lack of expectation of a significant increase in soda ash consumption, the supply - demand imbalance of soda ash will continue to intensify. Therefore, it is still necessary to restrict the release of production capacity and output through losses. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the impact of changes in the supply side such as the progress of new production capacity commissioning [1] Strategy - Glass: Weak and oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Weak and oscillating [2] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - Silicomanganese: The long - short game sentiment in the silicomanganese futures market continued, and the market oscillated within a narrow range. The spot market quotation did not change significantly. The price of silicomanganese 6517 in the northern market was 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was about 5,750 - 5,800 yuan/ton [3] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures market oscillated within a narrow range, with a 0.28% increase. In the spot market, the market sentiment was average, and the spot price was slightly adjusted. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lump in the main production area was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,800 - 5,950 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicomanganese: The output of silicomanganese increased month - on - month, and the inventory continued to decline, being at the median level in the same period in recent years. With the slight increase in the manganese ore quotation, the cost of silicomanganese increased. The market still shows an oversupply situation, and it is necessary to suppress the output release through a certain degree of losses. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the cost support and shipping situation of manganese ore [3] - Ferrosilicon: With the profit repair, the output of ferrosilicon increased rapidly, the demand decreased slightly week - on - week, and the inventory continued to decline. In the long run, the ferrosilicon production capacity is relatively loose. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the cost support and the impact of industrial policies on the black sector [3] Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]