运价中枢持续下修，关注马士基9月第二周报价-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate center continues to decline, and attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes in the second week of September [1]. - The 8 - month contract has seen the top of the freight rate, and the continuous decline in freight rates brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price. The estimated final delivery settlement price is around 2100 points [4]. - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation during the off - season, and the freight rate center continues to move down. It is relatively safe to short - allocate, but the key lies in the downward space. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract on rallies, but do not over - short [5][6]. - The 12 - month contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, and the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. If it reopens, the seasonal pattern may be challenged [6]. - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. The unilateral strategy is that the main contract fluctuates weakly, and the arbitrage strategy is to short the 10 - month contract on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different quotes for different routes and time periods. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 36 is 1300/2180, and Maersk's PSS in the Far East - Nordic region has dropped to 50/100 [1]. - Geopolitical situation: Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu has approved the plan for the Israeli Defense Forces to take over Gaza City and instructed to start cease - fire negotiations, while Hamas senior officials believe he is the main obstacle. Saudi Crown Prince and Egyptian President oppose Israel's military occupation of Gaza [2]. 3.2 Shipping Capacity - Weekly and monthly average shipping capacities from China to European base ports in different months are provided. There are also details about overtime ships in August and planned overtime ships in October. For example, in August, Maersk added two overtime ships, and HPL announced two overtime ships in October [3]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - 8 - month contract: The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on 8/11, 8/18, and 8/25. The estimated final price is around 2100 points [4]. - 10 - month contract: It is a quarterly contract, mainly for short - allocation. The freight rate center is moving down, and it is expected that Maersk's week 37 quote will continue to decline, possibly below 2000 US dollars/FEU. The two overtime ships announced by HPL in October may also put pressure on the spot price [5]. - 12 - month contract: In normal years, the price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October. The risk is whether the Suez Canal will reopen [6]. 3.4 Futures and Spot Prices - As of August 21, 2025, the total positions of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures are 79,540.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 45,149.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. Spot prices such as SCFI and SCFIS for different routes are also given [7]. 3.5 Container Ship Delivery - In 2025 so far, 167 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 1.318 million TEU. As of August 15, 2025, 51 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered [8]. 3.6 Strategy - Unilateral: The main contract fluctuates weakly. - Arbitrage: Short the 10 - month contract on rallies [8].