农产品日报：上方压力仍存，板块延续震荡-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three major commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][9] 2. Core Views - The global cotton supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight according to USDA, but the lack of abnormal weather in major producing areas makes the market skeptical. In China, short - term supply tightness supports cotton prices, but weak downstream demand creates pressure. Mid - term, good new cotton growth may suppress prices [2] - For sugar, Brazilian data shows a trade - off between sugar production and other factors. In China, slow domestic sales, high import profits, and large imports are increasing domestic spot pressure. A possible new - season delay may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [5][6] - Regarding pulp, supply pressure remains high due to increased imports and domestic capacity. Weak demand both in Europe, the US, and China, along with low terminal demand and high inventory, means the market is likely to remain weak in the short - term [7][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Cotton 2601 futures closed at 14,030 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,038 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton. The national average price was 15,210 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - As of August 15, India's new - season cotton planting area was 10.8 million hectares, a 2.7% decrease from the previous year. In Mato Grosso, the picking progress was 40%, 17 percentage points behind the same period last year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, USDA's reduction in global cotton production and ending stocks led to a short - term increase in US cotton prices, but the market is skeptical. Domestically, tight supply in the short - term supports prices, but weak downstream demand creates pressure. Mid - term, new cotton listing may suppress prices [2] Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended. Low inventory and the approaching textile peak season support prices, but policy regulation and long - term industry factors limit the upside [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Sugar 2601 futures closed at 5688 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton (+0.21%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5970 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5855 yuan/ton, also unchanged [4] - In July 2025, China's sugar - related imports totaled 7.43 tons, and the domestic refined sugar production in July was 41 tons, a 64.7% year - on - year increase [4] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazilian sugar data shows a complex situation. In China, slow domestic sales, high import profits, and large imports are increasing domestic spot pressure [5][6] Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended. Short - term price is likely to fluctuate within a range due to supply pressure, but a possible new - season delay may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Pulp 2511 futures closed at 5130 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.12%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5800 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply pressure remains high due to increased imports and domestic capacity. Weak demand both in Europe, the US, and China, along with low terminal demand and high inventory, means the market is likely to remain weak [7][8] Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended. With no significant improvement in the market fundamentals, short - term prices are likely to remain in a low - level oscillation [9]