新能源及有色金属日报：升贴水报价普遍下降，铜价维持震荡格局-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Suspended [7] - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton, short call@80000 yuan/ton [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The processing fee has rebounded, but the relative shortage of mine resources is difficult to change temporarily. Consumption is also hard to show excellent performance, but with relatively stable power grid orders, it won't collapse significantly. So, the overall price is expected to be in a volatile pattern. The future development of the Putin-Biden meeting needs attention. If the situation continues to improve, the LME may accept Russian copper again, which may put pressure on the LME copper price. Also, the relatively strong performance of the domestic equity market may siphon off commodity funds [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,560 yuan/ton and closed at 78,540 yuan/ton, a -0.13% decrease from the previous trading day's closing. The night session opened at 78,580 yuan/ton and closed at 78,710 yuan/ton, a 0.25% increase from the afternoon closing [1]. Spot Situation - SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot quoted a premium of 100 - 220 yuan/ton to the current 2509 contract, with an average of 160 yuan/ton, a 30 yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The spot price range was 78,710 - 78,890 yuan/ton. The market's procurement and sales sentiment slightly recovered. Due to the concentrated arrival of imported and domestic copper sources, holders actively sold, leading to a general decline in premiums. It is expected that domestic copper will continue to arrive at the warehouse, and low - priced imported sources will suppress premiums, but downstream procurement may provide support near the weekend, so the downward space for spot premiums is limited [2]. Important Information Summary - Macroeconomic Data: The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 49.5; the Services PMI slightly declined to 55.4, but the significant increase in manufacturing pushed the Composite PMI to a 9 - month high of 55.4 [3]. - Employment Market: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June, higher than the market expectation of 225,000; the number of continued jobless claims in the previous week rose to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021 [3]. - Monetary Policy: Cleveland Fed President Harmaque said she would not support a rate cut at the September meeting if Fed officials were to make a policy decision tomorrow. The CME Fedwatch tool shows that the market bets a 75% probability of a 25BP rate cut in September and a 25% probability of keeping it unchanged [3]. Mine End - Blue Moon Metals obtained at least $140 million in financing to support the early construction of its Nussir copper project in Norway. The project is expected to cost $330 million to build, with a mine life of 25 years, an average annual output of 25,000 tons of copper concentrate, and associated silver and gold. The cash cost is only $1.38 per pound of copper, ranking in the low - cost quartile of the industry, and it aims to start production in September 2027 [4]. - Codelco will lower its 2025 production guidance after an accident at its flagship mine El Teniente reduced production by 33,000 tons. The expected output of El Teniente this year is 316,000 tons, and the production decline will cause a loss of $340 million [4]. Smelting and Import - The LME Hong Kong delivery warehouse was inaugurated on the 19th. Hong Kong's participation in the LME's delivery network is an important step in building a commodity trading ecosystem. China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) output in July 2025 was 1.27 million tons, a 14% year - on - year increase. In August, the number of smelters reducing production due to copper concentrate and cold material supply shortages increased compared to July [5]. Consumption - In July, China's copper industry monthly prosperity index was 41.8, up 0.9 points from June, continuing to operate in the "normal" range; the leading index was 79.7, up 0.1 points from June; the coincident index was 73.8, down 0.9 points from June. In July 2025, China's copper foil export volume was 4,483.51 tons, a 13.32% year - on - year increase and a 3.23% month - on - month increase [6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 1,200.00 tons to 156,350 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 66 tons to 25,157 tons. On August 18, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 131,700 tons, a - 2,000 - ton change from the previous week [6].