新能源及有色金属日报：库存小幅降低，下游库存意愿仍较好-20250822

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [4] Core View - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate has improved, with both inventory and production decreasing. The subsequent approval of other mines is uncertain, and attention should be paid to the mining end's operation. With support from the consumer end, lithium carbonate is expected to run strongly under the influence of mining end disturbances, but the market is volatile [2]. Market Analysis - On August 21, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 82,000 yuan/ton and closed at 82,760 yuan/ton, a - 0.17% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 777,827 lots, and the open interest was 390,069 lots (395,102 lots the previous day). The basis was 2,740 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 24,320 lots, a change of 275 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,500 - 86,900 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 82,300 - 83,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 960 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The sharp decline in the lithium carbonate futures price has boosted downstream procurement and pricing enthusiasm, and the trading volume has significantly increased. Supported by rigid procurement from the downstream, the spot price of lithium carbonate will remain relatively high in the short term [1]. - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly production decreased by 842 tons to 19,138 tons. The production from spodumene increased, while that from mica decreased. The weekly inventory decreased by 713 tons to 141,543 tons. Downstream inventory increased significantly, and smelter inventory decreased [1]. Strategy - Due to the improvement in the supply - demand pattern, the reduction in inventory and production, and the uncertainty of subsequent mine approvals, attention should be paid to the mining end's operation. With support from the consumer end, lithium carbonate is expected to run strongly, but market participants need to manage risks due to high volatility [2]. Trading Recommendations - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Inter - period: None; Inter - commodity: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [4]