新能源及有色金属日报：下游畏跌情绪有所改变，但铅价仍维持震荡格局-20250822

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the peak - season demand not significantly reflected in batteries. Due to the relatively strong performance of the non - ferrous metals sector under macro factors, the lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,350 and 17,050 yuan [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On August 21, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$39.48 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan per ton to 16,675 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -25 yuan per ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 50 yuan per ton to 16,725 yuan per ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 100 yuan per ton to 16,675 yuan per ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 25 yuan per ton to 16,675 yuan per ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan per ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan per ton, 10,125 yuan per ton, and 10,450 yuan per ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On August 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,770 yuan per ton, closed at 16,745 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 28,843 lots, a decrease of 9,828 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 44,230 lots, a decrease of 2,546 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 16,720 and 16,810 yuan per ton. In the night session, the main contract opened at 16,755 yuan per ton and closed at 16,790 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan per ton from the afternoon close [1] Regional Quotations and Market Transactions - In the Henan region, suppliers quoted at a discount of 25 - 0 yuan per ton to the SMM1 lead average price or a discount of 130 - 100 yuan per ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. In the Hunan region, smelters quoted at a discount of 30 - 10 yuan per ton to the SMM1 lead, and suppliers quoted at a discount of 50 - 20 yuan per ton to the SMM1 lead or a discount of 160 - 150 yuan per ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. In the Guangdong region, suppliers quoted at a premium of 50 - 100 yuan per ton to the SMM1 lead. Downstream enterprises maintained rigid - demand procurement, and the fear of price drops and cautious purchasing sentiment eased slightly, with trading in some regional spot markets improving slightly [2] Inventory - On August 21, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 110 tons from the previous week. As of August 21, the LME lead inventory was 279,600 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous trading day [2] 2. Strategy - The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [3]