Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, go short on the 01 - 05 spread when it is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Recent export expectations have boosted the urea futures market, making it fluctuate on the strong side, and the spot price has followed suit. However, the new order transaction is average. There is still a large export space in July, and the subsequent implementation needs attention. The downstream agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. Although some enterprises are under maintenance, with new capacity coming on - stream, the future urea supply - demand remains loose if the export does not exceed the 2023 level. The coal - based urea profit is okay, and the cost support is average. The Indian tender will affect the international market, and the export dynamics should be continuously monitored [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - As of August 22, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1764 yuan/ton (-12). The small - particle ex - factory prices in Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu were 1760 yuan/ton (0), 1760 yuan/ton (-10), and 1760 yuan/ton (-20) respectively. The Shandong basis was - 4 yuan/ton (+2), the Henan basis was - 4 yuan/ton (-8), and the Jiangsu basis was - 4 yuan/ton (-8) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of August 22, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.98% (0.08%). Although Jiujiang Xinlianxin (520,000 - ton capacity) and Xinjiang Yihua (600,000 - ton capacity) started maintenance on August 20 for over 20 days, new capacity is being released [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 22, 2025, the urea production profit was 230 yuan/ton (-10), and the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.98% (0.08%) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - As of August 22, 2025, the export profit was 1249 yuan/ton (-42). In July, 570,000 tons of urea were exported, and there is still large export space. The Indian NFL issued a urea import tender, which will affect the international market [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 22, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 40.84% (-2.64%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 46.60% (-3.22%); the urea enterprise advance order days were 6.06 days (-0.23). The downstream industrial demand is weak due to the military parade [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 22, 2025, the sample enterprise total inventory was 1.0239 million tons (+66,500), and the port sample inventory was 501,000 tons (+37,000). The upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year [1][2]
尿素日报：下游开工下降，尿素震荡运行-20250822
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-22 05:20