氯碱日报：旺季临近，烧碱继续去库-20250822

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is still in a weak supply - demand situation. The supply side is under pressure due to the return of pre - maintenance production, high overall开工率 supported by chlor - alkali profits, and the gradual mass production of new capacity. The demand side shows low downstream product开工率 and enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement. The social inventory of PVC continues to accumulate, and the warehouse receipt pressure of the 09 contract is large. The chlor - alkali profit still has room for compression [3]. - The supply side of caustic soda has high upstream开工率, but some local enterprises have reduced production, and Yantai Wanhua plans to carry out maintenance, so the开工率 may decline slightly later. The demand side has stable alumina开工率, and the delivery volume of alumina plants is lower than daily consumption. The non - aluminum end开工率 has increased slightly, and the downstream stocking sentiment has improved due to transportation restrictions during the parade. With the approaching of the peak season, the inventory pressure of enterprises has decreased, and the inventory has continued to decline this week [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5004 yuan/ton (- 4); the East China basis is - 264 yuan/ton (+ 24); the South China basis is - 164 yuan/ton (+ 44) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4740 yuan/ton (+ 20); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4840 yuan/ton (+ 40) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The price of semi - coke is 630 yuan/ton (+ 0); the price of calcium carbide is 2755 yuan/ton (+ 0); the calcium carbide profit is - 39 yuan/ton (+ 0); the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 231 yuan/ton (+ 21); the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 540 yuan/ton (- 51); the PVC export profit is 15.5 US dollars/ton (- 3.0) [1]. - PVC inventory and开工率: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 32.7 tons (- 1.0); the social inventory of PVC is 49.3 tons (+ 1.2); the开工率 of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 76.07% (- 3.14%); the开工率 of PVC ethylene - based production is 72.44% (- 5.48%); the overall PVC开工率 is 75.02% (- 3.82%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 79.1 tons (- 4.1) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2687 yuan/ton (+ 32); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 62 yuan/ton (- 32) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 840 yuan/ton (+ 0); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1340 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1634 yuan/ton (+ 0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 770.8 yuan/ton (+ 40.0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 603.78 yuan/ton (+ 20.00); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1367.74 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and开工率: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 39.64 tons (- 4.14); the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.36 tons (+ 0.03); the caustic soda开工率 is 83.20% (- 0.90%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream开工率: The alumina开工率 is 85.64% (- 0.09%); the dyeing开工率 in East China is 63.86% (+ 2.40%); the viscose staple fiber开工率 is 86.22% (+ 0.18%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - In July, PVC exports reached 33.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26% and a year - on - year increase of 113%. From January to July, the cumulative exports were 229 tons, a year - on - year increase of 57%. Affected by the rush to export before the implementation of anti - dumping duties, the July exports exceeded expectations. Recently, India announced new anti - dumping duties on imported PVC, which are generally 46 - 52 US dollars/ton higher than the preliminary ruling results on October 30, 2024. It is expected that the rush to export will continue, but the export expectation will weaken after September [3]. Caustic Soda - The supply side of caustic soda has high upstream开工率, but some local enterprises have reduced production, and Yantai Wanhua plans to carry out maintenance, so the开工率 may decline slightly later. The demand side has stable alumina开工率, and the delivery volume of alumina plants is lower than daily consumption. The non - aluminum end开工率 has increased slightly, and the downstream stocking sentiment has improved due to transportation restrictions during the parade. With the approaching of the peak season, the inventory pressure of enterprises has decreased, and the inventory has continued to decline this week [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Neutral [4] - Inter - delivery spread: Wait - and - see [4] - Inter - commodity spread: None [4] Caustic Soda - Single - side: Wait - and - see [5] - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the SH10 - 01 spread when it is low [5] - Inter - commodity spread: None [5]