贵金属日评：特朗普对更多美联储官员施压辞职，美国8月非官方PM意外走高-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The rebound of consumer - side inflation in the US reduces the expected number of Fed rate cuts. Although the EU intends to promote a peace agreement among the US, Russia, and Ukraine, continuous gold purchases by global central banks may limit the downside space of precious metal prices. It is recommended that investors wait for price dips to initiate long positions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Data - Shanghai Gold: On August 21, 2025, the futures closing price was 775.12 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 2.44 yuan and a weekly decrease of 0.68 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 31,854 compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 14,440. The spot closing price was 771.66 yuan/gram, and the trading volume and open interest of spot Shanghai Gold T + D also changed. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 1.78, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 3.46 [1]. - Shanghai Silver: The futures closing price was 9162 yuan/kg, with a daily decrease of 42 yuan and a weekly decrease of 42 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 203,755 compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 11,580. The spot closing price was 9144 yuan/kg, and the trading volume and open interest of spot Shanghai Silver T + D also changed. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 16, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 18 [1]. - COMEX Gold: The futures closing price was 3383.50 dollars/ounce, with a daily decrease of 8.70 dollars and a weekly decrease of 23.50 dollars. The trading volume decreased by 11,003 compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 8,184. The London gold spot price was 3364.40 dollars/ounce, and the holdings of SPDR and iShare gold ETFs also changed [1]. - COMEX Silver: The futures closing price was 38.10 dollars/ounce, with a daily increase of 0.20 dollars and a weekly decrease of 0.45 dollars. The trading volume decreased by 6,909 compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 18,281 [1]. - Price Ratios: The ratios of gold to silver prices in different markets (Shanghai, New York, London) all changed. For example, the ratio of Shanghai futures gold to Shanghai futures silver was 84.60, with a daily increase of 0.31 and a weekly decrease of 0.85 [1]. 3.2 Important Information - US Monetary and Fiscal Policies: The US Department of Justice pressured to remove Fed Governor Cook, and Trump urged her to resign. The US Treasury will issue over 1 trillion dollars of mainly short - term treasury bonds in the third quarter to replenish the cash account. The usage of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool is approaching zero, which may gradually reduce the bank reserve scale. The import tariff pushed up commodity prices, causing the US July PPI and core CPI annual rates to rise. The Fed's expected number of rate cuts has been reduced to September/October [1]. - US Economic Data: The US August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 58.3, unexpectedly reaching a three - year high. The inflation pressure increased, and the US labor market cooling was obvious. The number of initial jobless claims increased by 11,000, and the number of continued claims reached a four - year high [1]. - Global Central Bank Policies: The European Central Bank temporarily suspended rate cuts, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2.8%. The eurozone (Germany) July CPI annual rate was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but the same as the previous value. The eurozone, Germany, and France August manufacturing PMIs were all higher than expected and the previous value, so the ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction after continuing to reduce 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The Bank of England may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025. The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start to reduce the quarterly treasury bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. There is still an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025, and the earliest may be in October [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Due to the rebound of US consumer - side inflation reducing the Fed's expected rate - cut times and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, the downside space of precious metal prices is limited. It is recommended that investors wait for price drops to initiate long positions. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1].