光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250822

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The urea futures price on Thursday showed a weakening trend in oscillation, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1764 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.34%. The spot market was weakly adjusted, and the mainstream regional spot prices dropped by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The supply level of urea fluctuated at a high level, and the demand side was not significantly boosted. The short - term urea futures price will run in a range, and there may be phased market conditions following the Indian tender results and China's export situation, but the upside is limited by the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices [1]. - The soda ash futures price on Thursday fluctuated narrowly, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1306 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.06%. The spot quotes were mostly stable, and the supply pressure continued to increase. The demand side was average, and the short - term futures price is expected to continue the range - oscillation trend [1]. - The glass futures price on Thursday showed a weakening trend in oscillation, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1156 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.86%. The spot market remained weak. The demand side improved in some areas, but there were still obvious differences. The short - term glass futures price is expected to continue the weak - oscillation state [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information Urea - On August 21, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 3,573, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 50 [4]. - On August 21, the daily output of the urea industry was 192,700 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 20,100 tons compared with the same period last year. The industry's operating rate was 83.25%, a 4.97 - percentage - point increase compared with 78.28% in the same period last year [4]. - On August 21, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were as follows: Shandong 1,760 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; Henan 1,760 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; Hebei 1,770 yuan/ton, unchanged; Anhui 1,780 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jiangsu 1,760 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; Shanxi 1,630 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. - As of August 20, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises was 1.0239 million tons, a weekly increase of 66,500 tons, or 6.95% [5]. Soda Ash and Glass - On August 21, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 9,073, a decrease of 1,181 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast volume was 1,609. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,188, a decrease of 200 from the previous trading day [7]. - On August 21, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions were provided. For example, in North China, the light soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton and the heavy soda ash was 1,350 yuan/ton [7]. - As of the week of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of the soda ash industry was 88.48%, a week - on - week increase of 1.15 percentage points; the weekly output of soda ash was 771,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,100 tons, or 1.32% [7]. - As of August 21, the inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 13,500 tons compared with Monday, or 0.71% [8]. - On August 21, the average price of the float glass market was 1,147 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 2 yuan/ton; the industry's daily output was 159,600 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8]. - As of August 21, the inventory of domestic float glass enterprises was 63.606 million weight cases, a week - on - week increase of 180,000 weight cases, or 0.28%, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.37%. The inventory days were 27.2 days, an increase of 0.1 day compared with last week [8]. Chart Analysis - The report includes various charts such as the closing price of the urea main contract, the closing price of the soda ash main contract, urea basis, pure alkali basis, the trading volume and open interest of the urea main contract, the trading volume and open interest of the soda ash main contract, the price spread between urea 2601 - 2509, the price spread between soda ash 2601 - 2509, the urea spot price trend chart, the soda ash spot price trend chart, the urea - methanol futures price spread, and the glass - soda ash futures price spread [11][12][16][17][19][20]. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards [22]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has won multiple honors [22]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys. He has won relevant honors [22].