Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2) Core View of the Report - The overall non - ferrous commodities show signs of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, with prices trending upward. Zinc prices follow this upward trend, but the spot market is weaker, and the spot discount has widened. Despite potential consumption growth, the supply pressure remains, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in China. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium is -$9.33 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,230 yuan per ton, up 60 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of -40 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,200 yuan per ton, up 80 yuan, with a premium of -70 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, up 60 yuan, with a premium of -60 yuan per ton [1]. - Futures: On August 21, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,300 yuan per ton, closed at 22,240 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 85,851 lots, and the open interest was 110,426 lots. The intraday high was 22,330 yuan per ton, and the low was 22,230 yuan per ton [2]. - Inventory: As of August 21, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 132,900 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 69,375 tons, a decrease of 1,875 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Market Analysis - Trend: Non - ferrous commodities are showing signs of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, with prices trending upward. Zinc prices follow this upward trend, but the spot market is weaker, and the spot discount has widened [4]. - Cost: The imported TC is still rising, and smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, maintaining an upward trend [4]. - Smelting: The smelting profit, including by - product revenue, remains above 1,000 yuan per ton, so smelting enthusiasm persists, and the current and expected supply - side pressure remains unchanged [4]. - Consumption: Consumption was strong during the off - season and shows signs of transitioning to the peak season. However, even if the peak season is strong, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in China, and the social inventory exceeds the historical average. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Even when other non - ferrous metals are strong, zinc prices are expected to be relatively weak, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored [5]. - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]
新能源及有色金属日报：锌现货疲软与有色商品趋势向上的博弈-20250822
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-22 05:30