Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the industry is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The decline in aluminum ingot inventory indicates a more limited downward adjustment of aluminum prices. In the long - term supply - constrained context, high industry profits do not restrict price increases. Attention should be paid to price increases driven by stronger - than - expected actual consumption during the peak season [7]. - For alumina, the domestic spot market is sluggish with slightly falling prices, and the import window is not open. The increase in warehouse receipt inventory and the easing of supply make it more difficult to squeeze positions. With the transfer of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the situation of tight supply in the south and loose supply in the north will continue. The focus is on market tendering [7][8]. - For aluminum alloy, consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The price spread in the spot market and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend. Attention can still be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [9]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 20,680 yuan/ton, with a change of 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium is 20 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton. - Central Plains A00 aluminum price is 20,580 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 80 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, with a change of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium is - 25 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Aluminum Futures - On August 21, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,570 yuan/ton, the closing price was 20,590 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton. The highest price was 20,660 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,530 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 124,523 lots, and the open interest was 233,902 lots [3]. Inventory - As of August 21, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 596,000 tons, with a change of - 1,100 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory was 59,890 tons, with a change of - 3,048 tons. The LME aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, with no change [3]. Alumina Spot Price - On August 21, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,205 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,225 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,325 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 372 US dollars/ton [3]. Alumina Futures - On August 21, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 3,150 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,124 yuan/ton, with a change of 4 yuan/ton (0.13%). The highest price was 3,179 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,116 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 326,961 lots, and the open interest was 185,979 lots [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On August 21, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil - use raw aluminum was 15,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,700 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,000 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [4]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 52,100 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 60,300 tons [5]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,097 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 4 yuan/ton [6] 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The weekly output of aluminum rods has been rising from a low level for a month. The social inventory of aluminum rods reached its peak in mid - July, then fluctuated, and started to decline in early August. The aluminum ingot inventory declined on Thursday and is expected to enter the destocking cycle. The micro - data shows a clear transition from the off - season to the peak season [7]. Alumina - The domestic spot market is inactive with slightly falling prices, while the overseas market is relatively active, but the import window is not open. The warehouse receipt inventory has increased to 76,000 tons. With the easing of supply, it is more difficult to squeeze positions. Due to the expected oversupply and high inventory, the price of bauxite is difficult to rise [7]. Aluminum Alloy - The spread between AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 450 yuan/ton. Consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price spread in the spot market and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend. Attention can be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [9] 3. Strategies - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [10] - Arbitrage: Long - short spread arbitrage in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 short AL11 [10]
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Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-22 05:30