新能源及有色金属日报：基本面变化不大，工业硅多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡-20250822

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little, and its futures market is mainly fluctuating with the overall commodity sentiment. For polysilicon, the spot price center has moved up, but the market is greatly affected by anti - involution policies, with large fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices [3][8] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - Futures: On August 21, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The main contract 2511 opened at 8420 yuan/ton and closed at 8635 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan/ton (3.66%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 283,578 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 51,166 lots, an increase of 553 lots from the previous day [1] - Supply: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9500 - 9700 yuan/ton. The total social inventory in major regions on August 21 was 543,000 tons, a decrease of 2000 tons from last week [1] - Consumption: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Shandong monomer enterprises' DMC price was 10,800 yuan/ton this week, down 500 yuan/ton from last week. Other domestic monomer enterprises' prices were 11,000 - 11,500 yuan/ton, down 500 - 1000 yuan/ton from last week [2] Polysilicon - Futures: On August 21, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 fluctuated widely, opening at 52,200 yuan/ton and closing at 51,530 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 1.28% from the previous trading day. The position was 149,610 lots, and the trading volume was 447,553 lots [5] - Spot: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. N - type material was 46.00 - 52.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 45.00 - 47.00 yuan/kg. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 249,000 tons, a 2.90% change; the silicon wafer inventory was 17.41GW, a - 12.07% change. The weekly polysilicon output was 29,100 tons, a - 0.68% change; the silicon wafer output was 12.29GW, a 1.57% change [5] Other Products - Silicon Wafer: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 1.21 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.56 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafer was 1.36 yuan/piece [7] - Battery Cell: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cell was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 was 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 was 0.29 yuan/W; Topcon G12 was 0.29 yuan/W; Topcon210RN was 0.29 yuan/W; HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [7] - Component: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [7] Strategies Industrial Silicon - The spot price remains stable, and the inventory has decreased slightly this week. The fundamentals have changed little, and the industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment [3] Polysilicon - In the short - term, it is suitable for range trading. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable for long - position layout at low prices. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and spot price transmission [8][10]