化工日报：下游轮胎厂开工率环比回升-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU and NR are rated neutral [5] - BR is rated neutral [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, the continuous rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas is expected to keep raw material prices firm, providing cost - side support. However, prices will fall after the rain stops. Currently, the overall supply pressure is small, but there is an expectation of increased supply at the end of August. Downstream tire开工率 shows a divided trend, and attention should be paid to tire factories' stocking willingness before the peak demand season [5] - For BR, the supply is expected to increase next week. The downstream tire开工率 is divided, and the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to remain strong, and the price of surrounding natural rubber also has a certain pulling effect on BR [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,720 yuan/ton (+45 yuan/ton compared to the previous day), the NR main contract was at 12,600 yuan/ton (+75 yuan/ton), and the BR main contract was at 11,775 yuan/ton (+60 yuan/ton) [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton), Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,620 yuan/ton (+90 yuan/ton), Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,810 US dollars/ton (+15 US dollars/ton), Indonesian 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,755 US dollars/ton (+10 US dollars/ton), the ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton), and the market price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,700 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton) [1] Market Information - In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [2] - In the first seven months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In July alone, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] - In the first seven months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%; the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to July, the export volume of automobile tires was 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%; the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [2] - In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, an increase of about 42% compared to 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year [2] - In July, China's commercial vehicle production and sales were 298,000 and 306,000 vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 16.3% and 14.1%. Affected by seasonal factors, they decreased by 15.8% and 17.1% month - on - month. The industry showed a mild recovery due to factors such as the recovery of logistics demand, the scrapping of old operating trucks, and new - energy purchase subsidies [3] - In the first half of 2025, the United States imported a total of 143.43 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. Among them, passenger car tire imports increased by 3% year - on - year to 84.89 million pieces; truck and bus tire imports increased by 10% year - on - year to 32.32 million pieces; aircraft tire imports decreased by 13% year - on - year to 132,000 pieces; motorcycle tire imports increased by 22% year - on - year to 1.88 million pieces; bicycle tire imports increased by 5% year - on - year to 3.15 million pieces [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On August 21, 2025, the RU basis was - 970 yuan/ton (- 45), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,100 yuan/ton (- 45), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,148 yuan/ton (- 35.31), the NR basis was 303.00 yuan/ton (+15.00); whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (+0), mixed rubber was 14,620 yuan/ton (+90), 3L spot was 14,900 yuan/ton (+50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,810 US dollars/ton (+15), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 150 yuan/ton (- 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,320 yuan/ton (+90) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 60.00 Thai baht/kg (+0.40), Thai latex was 54.70 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), Thai cup lump was 49.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.15), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.15) [4] -开工率: The开工率 of all - steel tires was 64.97% (+2.35%), and the开工率 of semi - steel tires was 71.87% (+2.76%) [4] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,285,363 tons (+7,504.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 616,731 tons (- 3,121), the RU futures inventory was 179,930 tons (+3,650), and the NR futures inventory was 46,469 tons (+4,234) [5] BR - Spot and spreads: On August 21, 2025, the BR basis was - 175 yuan/ton (+90), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (+0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (+0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,700 yuan/ton (+200), the price of private BR in Shandong was 11,600 yuan/ton (+150), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,090 yuan/ton (+99) [5] -开工率: The开工率 of high - cis BR was 69.15% (+4.63%) [5] - Inventory: The inventory of BR traders was 7,410 tons (+420), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 23,200 tons (- 250) [5]