化工日报：EG价格坚挺，基差运行平稳-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 22, 2025, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,473 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous trading day; the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,518 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day; the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The ethylene - based EG production profit was -$48/ton, up $1/ton; the coal - based syngas EG production profit was -69 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton. [1] - From the supply side, the domestic syngas - based EG production load has returned to a high level, and the total EG operating rate has risen above 70%. Overseas imports are expected to rebound to around 650,000 tons after August. From the demand side, the most pessimistic period of the off - season is over, with some local orders showing signs of improvement. It is expected that the short - term polyester load will remain stable with a slight increase. The balance sheets for August - September show a slight inventory build - up, with both supply and demand on an increasing trend. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,473 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous trading day; the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,518 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day; the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The ethylene - based EG production profit was -$48/ton, up $1/ton; the coal - based syngas EG production profit was -69 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton. The domestic syngas - based EG production load has returned to a high level, and the total EG operating rate has risen above 70%. [1][2] International Price Difference - No specific data provided, only a chart (Figure 9: EG international price difference: US FOB - China CFR) is mentioned. [19] Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The most pessimistic period of the demand off - season is over, with some local orders showing signs of improvement. It is expected that the short - term polyester load will remain stable with a slight increase. [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data on Monday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 547,000 tons, down 6,000 tons; according to Longzhong data on Thursday, it was 498,000 tons, down 37,000 tons. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week totaled 54,000 tons, and 43,000 tons at the auxiliary ports. On Thursday, the total MEG port inventory in the East China main port area was 497,800 tons, down 4,600 tons from Monday and 36,700 tons from last Thursday. [1]