镍与不锈钢日评：”反内卷“情绪变化快、波动大-20250822

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on August 21, the main contract of Shanghai nickel trended downward, with increased trading volume and open interest. The spot market had weak transactions, and the basis premium widened. The supply side showed stable nickel ore prices, reduced nickel ore arrivals last week, and inventory at ports. Nickel iron plants' losses narrowed, with domestic production scheduled to decline in August and Indonesian production increasing. Domestic electrolytic nickel production was expected to increase in August, and export profits shrank. On the demand side, ternary material production increased, stainless - steel plants' production schedules rose, and alloy and electroplating demands were stable. Inventory increased in the SHFE, LME, and social inventory, while remaining flat in the bonded area. With a loose fundamental situation for pure nickel and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations being inconsistent, nickel prices were expected to fluctuate within a range, and it was recommended to wait and see [2]. - For stainless steel, on August 21, the main contract of stainless steel trended downward, with decreased trading volume and increased open interest. The spot market had weak transactions, and the basis premium widened. Inventory at the SHFE decreased, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 617,500 tons (a decrease of 11,600 tons). In terms of supply, stainless - steel production schedules increased in August. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. At the cost end, the price of high - nickel pig iron rose, while the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained stable. Currently, macro - sentiment had a significant impact. Although the fundamentals were loose, it would take time for prices to return to the fundamentals, and there was cost support. Therefore, prices were expected to fluctuate following macro - factors, and it was recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary of Related Data Nickel Futures - On August 21, the closing price of the near - month contract of Shanghai nickel was 119,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 90,715 lots (+27,039), and the open interest was 102,385 lots (+51,529). The LME 3 - month nickel official price decreased by 0.45%. The basis (spot - to - futures) was 1,270 yuan, an increase of 2150 yuan compared to the previous day [2]. - The prices of nickel ore, including Philippine laterite nickel ore of different grades, remained stable. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 121,100 yuan/ton [2]. Stainless - Steel Futures - On August 21, the closing price of the near - month contract of Shanghai stainless steel was 12,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 99,736 lots (-50,000), and the open interest was 138,810 lots (+3,046). The basis (spot - to - futures) was 880 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan compared to the previous day [2]. - The prices of 304 - series and 316 - series stainless - steel products in the spot market were mostly stable, with some minor changes in inventory. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 617,500 tons, a decrease of 11,600 tons [2]. Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai nickel increased in the SHFE, LME, and social inventory, while remaining flat in the bonded area. The inventory of stainless steel at the SHFE decreased, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased last week [2].