集运日报：中东局势反复，现价维持下跌，助长空头情绪，近期波动较大，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。-20250822

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports [1][2][3] Core Views - Due to the repeated Middle - East situation, current prices are falling, increasing short - selling sentiment. With large recent fluctuations, it's not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [1] - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the trading is difficult, so it's advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3] - In the short - term, the main contract is weak while far - month contracts are stronger. Risk - takers can try to go long lightly at around 1300 for the 2510 contract and around 1750 for the 2512 contract. Keep an eye on the subsequent market trend and don't hold losing positions, setting stop - losses [3] - For the arbitrage strategy, given the volatile international situation, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [3] - In the long - term, it's suggested to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] Summary by Related Information Shipping Industry - Container Freight Indexes: On August 15 - 18, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5%; the NCFI (European route) was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1106.29 points, up 2.2%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1042.91 points, down 5.9%. On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI European route price was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI (European route) was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI (US West route) was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1] Economic Data - Eurozone: In July, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8 (expected 49.7, previous 49.5), the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 50.7, previous 50.5), the composite PMI preliminary value was 51 (expected 50.8, previous 50.6), and the SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2] - China: The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [2] - US: In July, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous 52.9), the services PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53, previous 52.9), and the Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [2] Futures Market - Contract Information: On August 21, the main contract 2510 closed at 1325.0, down 2.49%, with a trading volume of 3.50 million lots and an open interest of 5.43 million lots, an increase of 2566 lots from the previous day. The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [3] Geopolitical and Trade - Middle - East Situation: The cease - fire in Gaza may fail again, the spot price is falling, and short - selling sentiment is rising. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [1][3] - US - China Tariffs: The extension of US - China tariffs continues, and the negotiation has no substantial progress. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the current spot price has slightly decreased [3]