永兴材料（002756）：锂价下跌对公司上半年业绩形成拖累

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 38.39 [1][3][11]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 was negatively impacted by the decline in lithium prices, with revenue of RMB 3.693 billion, down 17.78% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 401 million, down 47.84% year-on-year [7]. - The steel business remains stable, while the lithium battery materials segment is expected to recover in the second half of the year due to recent increases in lithium carbonate prices [7][10]. - The company has a lithium carbonate production capacity of 30,000 tons per year, and its mining operations have been expanded, which is expected to enhance resource security and support performance recovery [10][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 3.693 billion and a net profit of RMB 401 million, with a gross margin of 15.78%, down 3.21 percentage points year-on-year [7][8]. - The second quarter saw revenue of RMB 1.905 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.10%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.50% [7]. - The company’s expenses increased, with a total expense ratio of 4.66% in H1 2025, up 2.17 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Market Outlook - The recent disturbances in lithium resource supply have led to an increase in lithium prices, with expectations that the domestic lithium carbonate inventory will continue to decrease, supporting prices around RMB 80,000 per ton [9]. - The company’s lithium battery materials segment is anticipated to see significant performance recovery in the second half of the year due to rising lithium prices [10]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be RMB 1.72, with net profits expected to be RMB 928.08 million [6][11]. - The valuation for the steel segment is based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.2 times, while the lithium battery materials segment is valued at a PE of 30.9 times, leading to a target price of RMB 38.39 [11].