Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - On August 22, the main contracts of stock index futures opened slightly higher, oscillated upward, and rose slightly. IF2509 and IC2509 reached new highs in over 3 years, and IH2509 reached a new high in over 2 years. Foreign - funded institutions are accelerating their entry into the A - share market. Their latest research reports suggest that the sentiment in the A - share market has significantly improved and the medium - term outlook is positive. Foreign investors continue to be bullish on the Chinese stock market, which will attract more funds and help the stock index futures to oscillate upward in the medium, medium - short, and short terms [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - Intraday Forecast: - IF2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, attacking resistance levels at 4350 and 4380 points (4380 is a stronger resistance), with support levels at 4282 and 4270 points (4270 is a stronger support) [2][9]. - IH2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, attacking resistance levels at 2908 and 2920 points (2920 is a stronger resistance), with support levels at 2865 and 2858 points (2858 is a stronger support) [2][10]. - IC2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, attacking resistance levels at 6750 and 6800 points (6800 is a stronger resistance), with support levels at 6656 and 6621 points (6621 is a stronger support) [3][10]. - IM2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, attacking resistance levels at 7312 and 7370 points (7370 is a stronger resistance), with support levels at 7202 and 7156 points (7156 is a stronger support) [3][11]. - August Forecast: - The IF main contract in August 2025 is likely to oscillate strongly in a wide range, attacking resistance levels at 4400 and 4535 points, with support levels at 4003 and 3983 points [3][11]. - The IH main contract in August 2025 is likely to oscillate strongly in a wide range, attacking resistance levels at 2941 and 3000 points, with support levels at 2725 and 2700 points [3][11]. - The IC main contract in August 2025 is likely to oscillate strongly, attacking resistance levels at 6900 and 7017 points, with support levels at 6070 and 6050 points [3][12]. - The IM main contract in August 2025 is likely to oscillate strongly, attacking resistance levels at 7500 and 7800 points, with support levels at 6500 and 6450 points [3][12]. 2. Macroeconomic and Stock Market News - In July, the total social electricity consumption reached 1.02 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The proportion of new energy has significantly increased, and the power generation of wind, solar, and biomass has increased rapidly, accounting for nearly a quarter of the total [4]. - A new policy - based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan will be launched, focusing on emerging industries and infrastructure, including digital economy, artificial intelligence, etc. Policy - based banks such as the National Development Bank will participate [6]. - The EU and the US announced details of a new trade agreement. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, while the EU will cancel tariffs on US industrial products, provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products, and plans to purchase US energy and AI chips worth hundreds of billions of dollars by 2028 [6]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, the highest since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 49.5. The service PMI slightly declined to 55.4, but the manufacturing rebound pushed the composite PMI to a 9 - month high of 55.4 [6]. - Foreign - funded institutions are accelerating their entry into the A - share market. As of August 21, foreign - funded institutions held A - shares worth about 2.5 trillion yuan, an 8% increase from the end of 2024, accounting for 2.72% of the total A - share floating market value. 261 out of 920 companies that disclosed their mid - year reports had QFIIs in their top ten floating shareholders, with a total market value of about 30.14 billion yuan. Foreign - funded institutions believe that the A - share market sentiment has improved and the medium - term outlook is positive [7]. - Goldman Sachs' latest research report points out that the current rise in the Chinese stock market is mainly driven by retail funds, and there is still a large amount of "idle funds" waiting to enter the market. Chinese small - and medium - cap stocks still have significant room for growth, and indices such as the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 are worthy of attention [7]. - South Korean investors have been actively buying Chinese assets. As of August 20, the cumulative trading volume of South Korean investments in the Hong Kong stock market this year has exceeded $5.8 billion. South Korean funds have net - bought about $499 million of Chinese stocks this year, compared with a net - selling of $985 million in the previous three years. They are particularly interested in high - growth industry leaders in the Hong Kong and A - share markets [8]. 3. Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - On August 22, IF2509 opened slightly higher, oscillated upward, and closed at 4338.8 points at noon, up 1.43% (1.32% based on the closing price). It reached a new high since July 12, 2022, but failed to break through the 4350 - point resistance. The 4282.2 - point closing price on August 21 and the 5 - day moving average provided obvious support [8]. - IH2509 opened slightly higher, oscillated upward, and closed at 2898.0 points at noon, up 1.26% (1.14% based on the closing price). It reached a new high since January 31, 2023, but failed to break through the 2908.4 - point resistance. The 2865.4 - point closing price on August 21 and the 5 - day moving average provided obvious support [9]. - IC2509 opened slightly higher, oscillated upward, and closed at 6739.8 points at noon, up 1.44% (1.25% based on the closing price). It reached a new high since January 26, 2022, but failed to break through the 6750 - point resistance. The 6656.4 - point closing price on August 21 and the 5 - day moving average provided obvious support [10]. - IM2509 opened slightly higher, oscillated upward, and closed at 7274.0 points at noon, up 1.21% (1.00% based on the closing price). It failed to break through the 7300 - point and 7312.0 - point resistances. The 7202.2 - point closing price on August 21 provided obvious support, and the 5 - day moving average support was regained, with the short - term trend turning upward [11].
外资唱多中国股市，股指期货震荡上行走高IF2509和IC2509合约再创近3年多来新高
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-22 06:05