FICC日报：美欧8月制造业PMI双超预期，关注杰克逊霍尔会议-20250822

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests going long on industrial products on dips in commodities and stock index futures [4] Core Viewpoints - In July, the global economic data showed resilience. China's official manufacturing PMI declined, but exports increased year - on - year. The money supply exceeded expectations, while financing and loan data were weak. The US non - farm payrolls data in July was below expectations, but the service PMI improved significantly [1] - The US has adjusted "reciprocal tariffs", and the impact of tariffs on inflation and the economy needs time to fully manifest. The Fed's July meeting minutes signaled a hawkish stance [2] - The manufacturing PMIs in the US and the Eurozone in August exceeded expectations, with Germany's manufacturing showing a strong recovery [2] - Different commodity sectors have different characteristics. The black and new energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations, and the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products and the stability of agricultural products are worth noting [3] Market Analysis - China's economic data in July: the official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3, non - manufacturing remained in expansion, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, money supply exceeded expectations, but investment data faced pressure. The 30 - year Treasury yield reached a new high since December last year, and the total social power consumption reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% [1] - US economic data in July: non - farm payrolls data was below expectations, but the service PMI improved significantly. The "Big Beautiful" Act may support subsequent consumption [1] - Future outlook: the "reciprocal tariff 2.0" is in effect, and subsequent demand needs attention. There is a divergence between market sentiment and fundamentals, and the volatility risk of commodities should be guarded against [1] Tariff and Trade Agreement - The US has adjusted the "reciprocal tariff" rate. The EU and the US have reached an agreement on a trade deal framework. The EU will cancel tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US agricultural products. The US will impose a maximum tariff rate of 15% on most EU goods [2][6] - The US and China have suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days until November 10. The US has included 407 product categories in the steel and aluminum tariff list, and Trump may announce semiconductor tariffs with a rate of up to 300% [2] Commodity Analysis - Black and new energy metal sectors: the black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry is worthy of attention [3] - Non - ferrous sector: supply constraints have not been alleviated [3] - Energy sector: the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose, with OPEC+ accelerating production increases by 548,000 barrels per day in August [3] - Chemical sector: the "anti - involution" space of products such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worthy of attention [3] - Agricultural products: there is no short - term weather disturbance, and the fluctuation range is relatively limited [3] Other Key Information - The total social power consumption in China in July reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, breaking through the trillion - kWh mark for the first time globally [1][6] - The yields of China's 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds have risen [1][6] - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most members believed inflation risk exceeded employment risk, and the impact of tariffs needed time to fully manifest [2][6] - Russia and India plan to jointly exploit resources [3][6][7]