镍与不锈钢日评：“反内卷”情绪变化快、波动大-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on August 21, the main nickel contract declined. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The nickel ore price remained flat, the domestic nickel iron production was expected to decline in August while Indonesia's increased, and the domestic electrolytic nickel production was expected to increase. The demand for ternary materials, stainless steel, alloys, and electroplating was stable. The overall nickel fundamentals were loose, and with the repeated expectations of Fed rate - cuts, nickel prices were expected to fluctuate within a range. It was recommended to wait and see [2]. - For stainless steel, on August 21, the main stainless - steel contract declined. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The stainless - steel production was expected to increase in August, but the terminal demand was weak. The high - carbon ferrochrome price remained flat. Considering the large influence of macro - sentiment, although the fundamentals were loose, it would take time for prices to return to fundamentals and there was cost support. Stainless - steel prices were expected to fluctuate with macro - factors, and it was recommended to wait and see [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Data - Futures Prices: On August 21, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 119,700 yuan/ton, 119,830 yuan/ton, 120,030 yuan/ton, and 120,290 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 230 yuan/ton, 230 yuan/ton, 270 yuan/ton, and 220 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 90,715 lots (+27,039), and the open interest was 102,385 lots (+51,529) [2]. - Spot Prices: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 121,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of nickel beans was 122,300 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, LME inventory increased, social inventory increased, and the inventory in the bonded area remained unchanged [2] Stainless Steel Market Data - Futures Prices: On August 21, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts decreased compared to the previous day [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of Shanghai stainless - steel futures was 99,736 lots (-50,000), and the open interest was 138,810 lots (+3,046) [2]. - Spot Prices: The average prices of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi), 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi), and other stainless - steel products remained mostly unchanged [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 617,500 tons (-11,600) [2] Market News and Analysis - Macroeconomic News: The US August S&P Global Composite PMI reached a new 8 - month high, reducing the bets on two Fed rate - cuts this year. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 11,000 to 235,000, and the number of continued claims increased by 30,000 to 1,972,000 [2]. - Nickel Market Analysis: The supply side showed stable nickel ore prices, reduced nickel ore arrivals last week, and inventory accumulation at ports. The demand side had increased production of ternary materials and stainless - steel plants, and stable demand for alloys and electroplating [2]. - Stainless Steel Market Analysis: The supply side had an expected increase in stainless - steel production in August, while the demand side had weak terminal demand. The cost side had a rising high - nickel pig iron price and a stable high - carbon ferrochrome price [2]