自由现金流资产系列13：现金流指数为何今年偏弱，往后会强吗？

Group 1 - The cash flow index has shown weak performance in 2025, primarily due to the profit fluctuations in the coal and petrochemical industries leading to valuation adjustments [5][10][29] - The absolute return of the cash flow index is significantly lower compared to historical averages, with the National and CSI cash flow total return indices yielding 4.1% and 4.6% respectively, while the broader market (Wande All A) returned 13% [5][10] - The banking sector's absence has been a major drag on the cash flow index's relative performance against the dividend index, which has benefited from strong bank contributions [29][30] Group 2 - The value strategy should not only focus on the level of ROE but also on the stability of ROE to enhance returns and mitigate volatility during periods of declining profitability [7][18] - The Huachuang strategy's cash flow combination has achieved a cumulative return of 31% from April 2024 to August 2025, outperforming benchmarks significantly [7][20] - The cash flow index tends to favor large-cap stocks, which has contributed to its underperformance in small-cap favorable market conditions [30][31] Group 3 - The expectation of a return to inflation could lead to the cash flow index outperforming both the dividend index and the broader market, as historical patterns suggest [31] - The cash flow index's performance is expected to improve as M1 growth has been rising for three consecutive quarters, indicating a potential shift in asset allocation logic [31]