Tianfeng Securities·2025-08-22 07:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [8] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 is significantly pressured by multiple factors, including a decline in oil prices, leading to a revenue drop of 10.6% year-on-year to 1,409.05 billion, and a net profit decrease of 39.8% to 21.48 billion [1] - The upstream segment's earnings are notably impacted by falling oil prices, with crude oil production down 0.3% year-on-year and an average price of $67 per barrel, a 12.9% decrease [2] - The downstream business faces short-term challenges due to reduced inventory profits from declining oil prices, with refining margins remaining stable at 315 yuan per ton, but segment earnings down 50.4% year-on-year [3] - The marketing segment is experiencing a significant decline in sales volume, with gasoline, diesel, and kerosene down 4.9%, 6.8%, and 8.4% respectively, leading to a revenue drop of 45.7% [4] - The company plans to reduce capital expenditures by approximately 5%, which is expected to benefit long-term profitability and cash flow [5] Financial Summary - The company's projected net profit for 2025 has been adjusted to 43.5 billion, down from previous estimates due to oil price pressures, with a price-to-earnings ratio forecasted at 16 [6][8] - The company’s revenue is expected to decline by 9% in 2025, with a gradual recovery projected in subsequent years [6] - The dividend yield for A shares is estimated at 4.3% for 2025, while H shares are projected at 6.2% [5]