Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Miniso (9896 HK), with a target price raised to HKD 48.70, indicating a potential upside of 24.7% from the current price of HKD 39.06 [1][8][12]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with management raising guidance for overall revenue growth to over 25% for the year, up from the initial guidance of over 22.8% [2][7]. - The domestic same-store sales are expected to achieve positive year-on-year growth, while the overseas market continues to expand, with a net increase of 94 stores in Q2 [7][8]. - The revenue for the first half of the year grew by 21.1% year-on-year to RMB 9.39 billion, driven by overseas markets and the Top Toy segment [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 13,839 million - 2024: RMB 16,994 million - 2025E: RMB 21,158 million - 2026E: RMB 24,835 million - 2027E: RMB 28,388 million - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 37.2% for 2023, 22.8% for 2024, and 24.5% for 2025 [3][14]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 2,253 million - 2024: RMB 2,618 million - 2025E: RMB 2,564 million - 2026E: RMB 3,364 million - 2027E: RMB 3,967 million [3][14]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 has been revised down by 13-14% to RMB 28-40 billion due to more conservative margin assumptions [8][9]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date decline of 16.98%, with a 52-week high of HKD 52.05 and a low of HKD 25.05 [6][12]. - The average daily trading volume is 11.84 million shares, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 47.92 billion [6][12].
名创优品（09896）：2季度业绩好于预期，管理层上调指引，维持买入评级