Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. There is support due to certain repair in steel demand, high hot metal production, and strong steel exports. However, there is also short - term pressure from factors such as expected hot metal production cuts, continuous steel inventory accumulation, and a decline in coal daily consumption in August. Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand in September, as well as overseas tariffs and domestic macro and industrial policies [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the overall supply - demand is relatively balanced. The coking coal price has a callback in the futures market, and the coke's seventh - round price increase has partially landed. In the medium term, the coking coal price center will gradually rise, and one can wait for adjustments and then go long on far - month contracts at low prices [11]. - The iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The factors driving price increases are weakening, and the market may shift to the relatively rapid weakening of terminal steel demand [16]. - For ferroalloys, both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have a bottom - oscillating trend recently. The high - premium risk has been largely released, and the supply and demand sides have different characteristics that need attention [18][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Related Information - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in August was 55.4. The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased by 11,000 to 235,000 in the week ending August 16. In July 2025, China's excavator output was 24,732 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. From January to July 2025, China's excavator output was 205,299 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [2]. - The spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,300 yuan (+10), in Beijing was 3,260 yuan (-), the spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3,420 yuan (-10), and in Tianjin was 3,370 yuan (-10) [3]. Logic Analysis - The black - metal sector maintained an oscillating trend in the night session yesterday. Steel production resumed this week, with rebar production decreasing and hot - rolled coil production increasing. The overall inventory of the five major steel products accumulated, but the accumulation speed slowed down. Steel exports remained strong, and building - material demand rebounded from the bottom. Steel demand has shown some repair, and high hot - metal production and strong exports support steel prices. However, with the approaching military parade, hot - metal production is expected to decrease next week, and there is short - term pressure on steel prices. But the production - cut window is short, and the downside space is limited. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The steel price maintains a bottom - oscillating trend. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to enter into a long - position in the basis when it is low and continue to hold. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke Related Information - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from last week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points from last year. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from last week and an increase of 4.30 percentage points from last year. The steel - mill profitability rate was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from last week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points from last year. The daily average hot - metal output was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 0.34 million tons from last week and an increase of 1.189 million tons from last year. - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 85.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The daily average raw - coal output was 1.912 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 tons. The raw - coal inventory was 4.716 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,000 tons. The daily average clean - coal output was 771,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons. The clean - coal inventory was 2.756 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 180,000 tons [9]. - The warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) in Lvliang, Shanxi was 1,596 yuan/ton, in Rizhao Port was 1,616 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (dry - quenched) in Lvliang, Shanxi was 1,700 yuan/ton. The warehouse - receipt price of Shanxi coal was 1,180 yuan/ton, Mongolian No. 5 coal was 1,099 yuan/ton, Mongolian No. 3 coal was 1,063 yuan/ton, and Australian coal (port spot) was 1,235 yuan/ton [10]. Logic Analysis - The hot - metal production increased slightly this week, and the steel mills' demand for raw materials was resilient. The coal - mine production also increased slightly, but considering factors such as over - production inspection and safety supervision, the resumption of production is expected to be limited. The overall commodity sentiment has cooled recently, and the coking - coal price in the futures market has corrected. In the spot market, the coking - coal price has both increases and decreases, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. The seventh - round price increase of coke has partially landed and is expected to be fully implemented in the next two days. In the medium term, due to relevant policies on over - production inspection and safety supervision, the supply of coal will be disturbed, and the coking - coal price center will gradually rise [11]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait for adjustments and then go long on far - month contracts at low prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see. - Spot - futures: Wait and see [13]. Iron Ore Related Information - The EU and the US issued a joint statement, announcing the details of the new trade agreement reached in July. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and timber. The EU promised to cancel tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products. - In July, the total social electricity consumption reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. - As of August 2025, 20 troubled real - estate enterprises' debt restructuring and reorganization have been approved, with a total debt - resolution scale of over 1.2 trillion yuan. - The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 769 yuan (+2), converted to the standard product was 810 yuan; the spot price of Super Special fines was 650 yuan (+5), converted to the standard product was 876 yuan; the spot price of Carajas fines was 881 yuan (+3), converted to the standard product was 838 yuan. The mainstream pricing product was PB fines with a spot price of 769 yuan (+2) and a standard - product price of 810 yuan, and the basis of the main contract of iron ore 01 was 38 [14]. Logic Analysis - The iron ore price oscillated narrowly in the night session. Fundamentally, the shipment of mainstream mines was stable, and it was difficult to see a large increase year - on - year. The shipment of non - mainstream mines in August continued to be at a high level year - on - year and was expected to contribute a certain increase. On the demand side, the growth rate of manufacturing and infrastructure investment slowed down significantly in July. The weakening of manufacturing may be due to the relatively fast progress of equipment - renewal funds in the first half of the year and the slowdown in the second half. Compared with the steel demand in the first half of the year, the demand for construction steel continued to be weak. The steel demand in the manufacturing industry increased by more than 7% year - on - year in the first half of the year, but it has weakened significantly in the third quarter so far, suppressing the current terminal steel demand. Overall, the factors driving the price increase have weakened, and the market may shift to the relatively rapid weakening of terminal steel demand, so the iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term [15][16]. Trading Strategies No specific trading strategies for iron ore are provided in a complete form in the text. Ferroalloys Related Information - From January to July 2025, the total domestic billet export volume was 747,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 309.72%. In July, the domestic billet export volume was 157,980 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.37% and a year - on - year increase of 349.07%. - On the 21st, the semi - carbonate price at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton - degree, Gabon lump was 39.5 yuan/ton - degree, CML Australian lump was 41.5 - 42 yuan/ton - degree, South32 Australian lump was 40.5 yuan/ton - degree, South African high - iron ore was 29.8 yuan/ton - degree, and South African medium - iron lump was 36.5 yuan/ton - degree [18]. Logic Analysis - For ferrosilicon, the spot price was stable with a slight decline on the 21st, and the spot price in some regions decreased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the production has been increasing recently. Pay attention to whether the resumption - of - production trend will stop after the price decline. On the demand side, the sample steel production still remained at a high level this week, supporting the demand for raw materials. After the significant price decline this week, the futures price is approaching the cost of some production areas, and the high - premium risk has been largely released, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently [18]. - For silicomanganese, the manganese - ore spot price was stable with a slight decline on the 21st, and the price of Gabon lump at Tianjin Port decreased by 0.1 yuan/ton - degree. The overall silicomanganese spot price declined, and the spot price in some regions decreased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. On the supply side, also pay attention to whether the current resumption - of - production rhythm will be interrupted after the price decline. On the demand side, the apparent demand of the rebar sample increased slightly this week and has not yet formed a downward trend. At the current price, the high - premium risk has been largely released, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently [19]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The futures price is approaching the cost of some production areas, and the high - premium risk has been largely released. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently. - Arbitrage: Enter into a long - position in the basis when it is low. - Options: Sell a straddle option combination at high prices [20].
黑色金属早报-20250822
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-08-22 07:57