钢材：高炉限产即将开启，短期盘面依然承压

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel prices are currently supported by certain demand recovery, high hot metal production, and strong steel exports. However, with the approaching parade, hot metal production is expected to decrease in the second half of next week. Combined with continuous steel inventory accumulation and the decline in coal consumption in August, there will be short - term pressure on steel prices. But the decline window is short, and the downward space is limited. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. In September, attention should be paid to the peak - season demand, as well as overseas tariffs and domestic macro and industrial policies. For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, continue to hold long - short spread positions for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - Supply: This week, the small - sample production of rebar decreased by 5.80 tons to 214.65 tons, while that of hot - rolled coil increased by 9.65 tons to 325.24 tons. The average daily hot metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 240.75 tons (+0.09), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 36.1% (+0.1). The overall production enthusiasm of steel was relatively strong [4]. - Demand: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 194.8 tons (+4.86), and that for hot - rolled coil was 321.27 tons (+6.52). Steel exports remained resilient, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil was still strong. However, domestic project investment was insufficient, real - estate demand was weak, manufacturing PMI contracted, and although the automobile industry maintained positive growth in the short term, its profit was shrinking, and the demand for white goods entered the off - season [4]. - Inventory: Rebar inventory increased by 19.85 tons in total, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.97 tons in total, and the total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 25.07 tons [4]. - Outlook: Steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. In September, attention should be paid to peak - season demand, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies. The trading strategy is to wait and see for single - side trading, continue to hold long - short spread positions for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [7] Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - Spot Prices: On Friday, the rebar summary price in Shanghai was 3300 yuan (-20), and in Beijing was 3260 yuan (-30). The hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3400 yuan (-60), and that of Tianjin Hegang was 3360 yuan (-70) [11]. - Profit: The flat - rate electricity profit of the East China electric furnace was - 101.98 yuan (+3.4), and the off - peak electricity profit was +63 yuan (+3). The long - process steel profit declined slightly but remained at a good level [4][30] Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - Overseas: The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate. In August, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI reached a 39 - month high, and the unemployment benefit initial claims increased. The eurozone's August composite PMI and manufacturing PMI improved, and the economy seemed to be regaining momentum [32]. - Domestic: From January to July 2025, the cumulative domestic steel billet exports increased by 309.72% year - on - year. In July, the new social financing was 1.13 trillion yuan, and the new RMB loans were negative. The growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline, and real - estate investment was still a drag on domestic demand [32][39] Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - Supply: The average daily hot metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 240.75 tons (+0.09), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 36.1% (+0.1). The small - sample production of rebar decreased, while that of hot - rolled coil increased [4][58]. - Demand: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. Steel exports remained strong, but domestic real - estate, manufacturing, and some consumer goods industries had weak demand [4]. - Inventory: Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories increased, and the total inventory of the five major steel products also increased [4]