高估风险大幅释放，近期底部震荡为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overvaluation risk of ferroalloys has been significantly released, and the prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [4][5]. - The demand side of alloys may face short - term shocks, and attention should be paid to whether the supply side will be suppressed after the price decline [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Fundamentals: Supply - the production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese continued to rise slightly this week, but the growth rate slowed down after the price dropped significantly. Demand - the pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased slightly, and the apparent demand for steel rebounded. There may be short - term demand shocks due to phased production restrictions in Tangshan steel mills. Cost - the electricity price was stable, and the price of port manganese ore declined slightly but remained firm [4]. - Market sentiment: "Anti - involution" leading varieties such as polysilicon, coking coal, and lithium carbonate showed differentiation, and lithium carbonate once hit the daily limit down, dragging down the sentiment of other commodities. After the futures price fell as expected and approached the cost line of some production areas, the overvaluation risk of both absolute valuation and futures premium was significantly released [4]. Strategies - Single - side trading: The overvaluation risk has been significantly released, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. - Arbitrage: The cash - and - carry arbitrage can be gradually closed for profit. - Options: Stay on the sidelines [5]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - Demand: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types was 2.03 tons (accounting for about 70% of the total demand), unchanged from the previous week; the weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel types (70%) was 12.53 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 tons [10]. - Supply: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 36.52%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34%; the national ferrosilicon output was 11.34 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 46.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.62%; the national silicomanganese output was 21.12 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.41 tons [11]. - Inventory: In the week of August 22, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 6.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31 tons; the inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) was 15.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 tons [12]. Cost and Profit - Silicomanganese: In Inner Mongolia, the production cost was 5831 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 81 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the production cost was 5939 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 339 yuan/ton; in Guangxi, the production cost was 6424 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 624 yuan/ton; in Guizhou, the production cost was 6168 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 418 yuan/ton [30]. - Ferrosilicon: In Inner Mongolia, the production cost was 5535 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 235 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the production cost was 5388 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 58 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi, the production cost was 5600 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 300 yuan/ton; in Qinghai, the production cost was 5457 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 157 yuan/ton; in Gansu, the production cost was 5609 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 309 yuan/ton [40]. Other Data - Metal Magnesium Demand: Data on the price of magnesium metal in Fugu and the cumulative production of magnesium metal in Yulin, Shaanxi were provided [67]. - Silicon - Iron Inventory: Data on the silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants and the available days of silicon - iron inventory in steel mills were presented [71]. - Manganese Ore Inventory: Data on the available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills, the total inventory of manganese ore in Tianjin Port, and the silicomanganese inventory of alloy plants were provided [74].