BOCOM International·2025-08-22 08:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for the company with a target price of HKD 16.28, indicating a potential downside of 10.1% from the current closing price of HKD 18.11 [2][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a steady performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue increasing by 3.3% year-on-year to RMB 14.82 billion. However, challenges are anticipated in the third quarter due to declining foot traffic and increased marketing expenses related to the Olympics [7]. - The management has maintained its full-year guidance for 2025, expecting flat revenue and a high single-digit net profit margin. The company is currently in an adjustment phase, and the recovery pace in the second half remains uncertain [7]. - The company has a healthy inventory level with a stock-to-sales ratio of four months, despite a net decrease of 51 stores to 7,534 by the end of the first half [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 27,598 million in 2023, RMB 28,676 million in 2024, and RMB 29,007 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 7.0%, 3.9%, and 1.2% respectively [6][8]. - Net profit is expected to decline from RMB 3,187 million in 2023 to RMB 2,678 million in 2025, with a corresponding decrease in earnings per share from RMB 1.23 to RMB 1.04 [6][17]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 49.1% in 2025, down from 48.4% in 2023, while the net profit margin is expected to decrease to 9.2% in 2025 [8][18]. Market Position and Strategy - The company continues to focus on professional sports categories, with footwear sales growing by 4.9% year-on-year, while apparel sales declined by 3.4%. The running category showed strong growth, with sales increasing by 15% [7]. - The management has increased marketing investments, particularly in collaboration with the Chinese Olympic Committee, to enhance the brand's professional image, despite the anticipated rise in marketing expense ratios in the second half of the year [7].