美国制造业扩张提速报告

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The global economy maintains an upward trend, with the US manufacturing sector expanding at an accelerated pace, the eurozone manufacturing PMI returning to the expansion range, and India's manufacturing and service sectors continuing to expand. The market anticipates that the Fed may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September and accelerate rate cuts in 2026. There is a bullish view on Chinese equity assets [5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - China strengthens its domestic economic cycle, with electricity consumption exceeding 1 trillion kilowatt - hours in July. A - shares have recently become the market with the most net purchases. The US Market manufacturing PMI in August expanded at the fastest pace in over three years, and the eurozone manufacturing PMI rose from 49.8 to 50.5 in August, breaking above the boom - bust line for the first time since June 2022. Market expectations suggest that the Fed may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September and accelerate rate cuts in 2026. DeepSeek - V3.1 uses UE8M0 FP8 designed for upcoming next - generation domestic chips, and Zhiyuan Robotics expects to have tens of thousands of units shipped in 2026 [5] - The US Market manufacturing PMI index in August accelerated its expansion, reaching a new high in over three years [7] - US retail and food sales in July reached a record high of $726.2 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.5%, and the June month - on - month increase was revised up from 0.6% to 0.9%, indicating strong US consumption [9] - In July, the month - on - month growth rate of the US PPI for goods rose to 0.7%, and the month - on - month growth rate of PPI for services increased significantly to 1.1%, suggesting an acceleration of US inflation [11] - The hourly wage growth rate of US non - farm businesses in July rose to 3.9%, indicating a still - robust US labor market and signs of rising inflation [14] - In June, the year - on - year growth rate of US wholesalers' inventories was 1.3%, and that of manufacturers' inventories was 1.1%, indicating an active inventory replenishment state [17] - The eurozone manufacturing PMI in August returned to the expansion range [19] - India's manufacturing PMI in July reached a one - year high, with accelerated expansion. India's manufacturing and service sectors have been expanding for over three years [21] - The US May and June non - farm employment data were significantly revised downward, greatly increasing the probability of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September [24] - As of August 9, the number of continuous unemployment benefit claimants in the US that week rose to 1.97 million, strengthening the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in September [27] - The year - on - year growth rate of the US core CPI in July was 3.1% (previous value 2.9%), with a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [30] - Japan's 10 - year government bond yield reached a new high [32] Asset Allocation - The US Bureau of Statistics revised down the May and June employment data, paving the way for a Fed interest rate cut in September. The Fed may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September. The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching 3800 points, and the market wealth effect continues to show. Off - market funds, represented by household savings, are accelerating into the market. Goldman Sachs' cash trading desk data shows that A - shares have recently become the market with the most net purchases, and the resilience of funds is more prominent against the backdrop of the adjustment of US technology stocks. Technical indicators show that the upward trend of the Chinese stock market is spreading. Nomura says that emerging market funds are rapidly shifting to the more attractively - valued Chinese market [35] - Bond funds have experienced large - scale redemptions, becoming a source of ammunition for the stock market, and funds are continuously flowing from the bond market to the stock market [38][53] - The Wenhua Commodity Index is in the second - wave correction of the current commodity upward trend, and the correction may last until around September 10 [39][58] - The Shanghai Composite Index has crossed 3800 points, and the stock market wealth effect continues to spread [40] - Cambrian led the chip sector to a sharp rise, and the Science and Technology Innovation Chip ETF broke through a large consolidation platform [42] - Driven by the Science and Technology Innovation Chip Index, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF broke through a large consolidation platform [44] - Among the four major stock index futures, the Shanghai 50 Index has the highest "chip content". Cambrian, Hygon Information, SMIC, and Montage Technology together account for 6.5% of the weight. Driven by the chip sector, the Shanghai 50 Index broke through a large consolidation platform [47] - A strategy of collecting discounts can continue for the 2512 contracts of the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indexes, earning both the index increase and the discount spread [49] - One can buy out - of - the - money long - term call options of the four major stock indexes at an appropriate time [52] - Hedge funds are buying a large number of Nasdaq put options to prevent panic selling [56]