Report Industry Investment Rating - PTA/MEG: Oscillating [1] Core Viewpoints - The expectation of petrochemical reform policies boosts market sentiment, and supply disruptions strengthen the near - term pattern. The short - term market sentiment is more affected than the fundamentals, and the continuation of the market depends on the actual situation of the industrial chain fundamentals [2][12] - The supply - side unplanned maintenance of PTA is a driving force for the recent price increase. If the maintenance is fully implemented, the near - term supply - demand pattern will improve significantly. The demand - side season change provides a window for price increases, but the lack of strong speculative replenishment willingness of downstream restricts price increases. MEG has no obvious additional supply - side disruptions, with high far - term supply and low - level port inventory, making it difficult to break out of the oscillating pattern in the short term [3] - The petrochemical capacity reform has shown signs, but the lack of detailed rules for capacity elimination limits the speculative demand. The short - term downstream peak - season replenishment window and PTA supply - side disruptions are the keys to improving the near - term supply - demand pattern, and the sustainability of the market depends on the full implementation of device maintenance [4][31] Summary by Directory 1. Petrochemical Reform Policy Expectations Boost Market Sentiment - Two news items have significantly boosted the sentiment of the chemical sector: China plans to comprehensively adjust the petrochemical industry, and South Korean petrochemical companies will cut naphtha cracking capacity. These reflect long - term policy regulation and global market changes, with a greater impact on short - term market sentiment than fundamentals [2][11] - The proportion of old - fashioned capacities of PX, PTA, and MEG is low, with those over 20 years old not exceeding 5%. It is difficult for them to directly benefit from capacity elimination, and the actual policy progress and implementation need long - term tracking [11][13] - The reduction of the market share of Japanese and South Korean petrochemical businesses has little direct impact on polyester products in the short term, but may bring future export opportunities for Chinese chemical products [11] 2. Supply Disruptions Strengthen the Near - Term Pattern, and Peak - Season Demand Remains to be Observed - The unplanned maintenance on the PTA supply side is a factor in the recent price increase. Low processing fees in August led to unplanned maintenance of some devices, and Hengli's plan to shut down two 500 - million - ton/year devices for a month will change the near - term PTA pattern from inventory accumulation to depletion. If the maintenance is fully implemented, it will increase the PTA loss by about 400,000 tons [3][16] - Although terminal orders have improved in mid - to late August and downstream loads have increased, the high inventory of polyester products of weaving enterprises and the lack of strong speculative replenishment willingness limit the upside potential of raw material prices [21] - MEG has no obvious additional supply - side disruptions, with the device maintenance loss in the second half of the year significantly lower than that in the second quarter. High coal - based loads and the restart of some non - coal - based devices make the far - term supply loose, but low - level port inventory strongly supports the price, and it is difficult to break out of the oscillating pattern in the short term [3][28] 3. Investment Recommendations - Since the petrochemical capacity reform has just shown signs and lacks detailed capacity elimination rules, it has limited impact on speculative demand. The short - term downstream peak - season replenishment window and PTA supply - side disruptions are key to improving the near - term supply - demand pattern, and the sustainability of the market depends on the full implementation of device maintenance [4][31] - For PTA, the pattern has marginally improved under supply disruptions, with the near - term changing from balance to inventory depletion, and the short - term price is oscillating strongly. Considering the mandatory cancellation of 09 warehouse receipts, try the 10 - 1 positive spread when the spread is low. If the PTA device maintenance duration is less than expected, the speculative sentiment may decline rapidly [4][31] - For MEG, the contradictions are not prominent. Low inventory and increased far - term supply restrict the price range, and the operation should be within the oscillating range [4][31]
政策预期提振情绪,供应扰动强化近月格局
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-08-22 08:42