创新药：国内海外双双突破，全球市场打开成长空间

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [5] Core Viewpoints - The innovative drug sector has shown excellent performance year-to-date, with significant growth potential in both domestic and overseas markets. The report estimates that by 2030, the domestic innovative drug market could reach approximately 446 billion yuan in revenue, translating to a market valuation of 13,380 to 22,300 billion yuan based on a peak PS multiple of 3-5 times [2][15][19] - The overseas market is also promising, with cumulative contract amounts for domestic innovative drug overseas licensing transactions reaching 193.8 billion yuan by June 2025. Assuming a conservative success rate of 50%, the expected sales share could contribute around 14.5 billion USD, leading to a market valuation of 10,175 to 20,349 billion yuan based on a peak PE multiple of 10-20 times [2][20][21] - The current market capitalization of the innovative drug sector is approximately 31,023 billion yuan, which reflects a neutral expectation of future growth. The report suggests that the sector is on track to break even by 2026, driven by improved fundamentals and ongoing overseas licensing deals [3][24][28] Summary by Sections 1. Current Valuation Levels of the Innovative Drug Sector - The domestic market is projected to achieve a sales scale of 446 billion yuan by 2030, corresponding to a market valuation of 13,380 to 22,300 billion yuan [15][19] - The overseas market's existing BD transaction sales share is expected to reach 14.5 billion USD, leading to a valuation of 10,175 to 20,349 billion yuan [20][21] - The current market capitalization of the innovative drug sector is about 31,023 billion yuan, indicating that it reflects a neutral expectation of future growth [24][25] 2. Long-term Growth Logic - The innovative drug sector is expected to break even by 2026, with significant improvements in the fundamentals of domestic companies [28] - The sector has seen a 36% year-on-year increase in revenue, with 69 domestic biotech companies generating 924.3 billion yuan in revenue in 2024 [28][32] - The number of companies generating over 100 million yuan in revenue is also increasing, indicating a positive trend in commercialization [28][34] 3. Potential Catalysts in the Second Half of 2025 - Key catalysts include ongoing negotiations for medical insurance, academic conferences, and the introduction of innovative drug catalogs in commercial insurance [3][4] - The report highlights that approximately 60 new approved domestic drugs are expected to participate in medical insurance negotiations this year [4][10] 4. Investment Strategies - The report suggests identifying potential heavyweights for overseas licensing, focusing on companies with high certainty for future overseas volume, and monitoring those benefiting from medical insurance negotiations [9][50] - Companies such as Innovent Biologics, Zai Lab, and others are highlighted as potential candidates for overseas licensing opportunities [9][50]